Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.08-6.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.36 → 4.64 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LPG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain daily charter rates at or above $68,000 per day | Dorian LPG keeps high daily charter rates near $68,000 in Q4 2026. | Improving | daily charter rates fall below $50,000 per day next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical shipping business with strong recent performance, not a steady compounder. The thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
LPG is valued as cheap versus peers, with little gap between current expectations and the evidence snapshot’s expectations measure. The low fragility assessment suggests the market is not pricing the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and a turbulent sector.
Near term, strong revenue and fleet-rate results support the operating picture, while fleet renewal and irregular dividends remain stated management priorities. Earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated; a guidance cut could lead analysts to lower estimates, while the recent history includes a deep miss.
The multi-year view depends on whether LPG can sustain high fleet rates, continue fleet renewal, and maintain its irregular distributions. Near term, a guidance cut is a meaningful risk; sector bellwethers’ results and guidance could either support or weaken the broader Energy-sector tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LPG combines cheap peer-relative valuation and strong recent results with fragile earnings quality and elevated risk. The thesis remains intact, but depends on continued execution and a supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is renewing its fleet with a $115 million newbuilding VLGC for 2029. |
| Intact |
| cancelation or delay of newbuilding VLGC beyond 2029 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Declare irregular dividends totaling at least $100 million annually | It declared $1.00 per share irregular dividends in Q4, showing strong capital return. | Improving | total irregular dividends fall below $70 million in fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.44 → $4.64 · observed estimates
$0.40B → $0.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.44 | $403,384,380 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.72 | $397,862,553 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.44 | $403,384,380 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.76 | $416,256,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.76 | $416,256,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.76 | $416,256,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.76 | $416,256,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.76 | $416,256,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.72 | $397,862,553 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.76 | $416,256,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.76 | $416,256,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.76 | $416,256,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.72 | $397,862,553 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.42 | $416,256,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.29 | $408,207,580 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.29 | $408,207,580 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.64 | $394,791,124 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.64 | $397,673,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.03 | $414,048,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.03 | $414,048,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.03 | $414,048,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.03 | $414,048,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.03 | $414,048,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.03 | $414,048,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.03 | $414,048,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.03 | $414,048,984 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.03 | $413,682,733 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.03 | $413,682,733 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.03 | $413,682,733 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.03 | $413,682,733 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.16 | $416,863,505 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.16 | $416,863,505 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.36 | $419,642,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.36 | $419,642,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.36 | $419,642,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.36 | $419,642,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.36 | $419,642,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.36 | $419,658,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.36 | $419,658,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.36 | $419,658,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.36 | $419,658,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.36 | $419,658,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.36 | $419,658,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.36 | $419,658,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.36 | $420,158,036 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.34 | $417,892,411 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.64 | $432,929,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.64 | $432,929,911 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.