Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.20+3.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LPG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -19.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LPG — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant On September 2, 2026, the Company entered into a new seven year $368.4 million credit facility to refinance existing indebtedness under (i) the amended and restated debt financing facility with Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank (“Credit Agricole”), ING Bank N.V. (“ING”), Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”), BNP Paribas (“BNP”), and Danish Ship Finance A/S…
Why it matters: This index affects TCE rates and overall revenue. Significant changes could impact earnings.
Watch forThe Baltic Exchange LPG Index averages above $200 per metric ton.
Also watch forThe Baltic Exchange LPG Index averages below $100 per metric ton.
Why it matters: This payment shows Dorian's promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe irregular cash dividend of $1.00 per share is paid as scheduled.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or not happening.
Why it matters: Adding a new director can improve governance and strategic direction. It shows commitment to growth.
Supportive ifThe company announces the appointment of a new director to the board.
Worry ifNo new director is appointed, or the board size does not increase.
Why it matters: Completing the sales of the Corsair and two VLGCs would boost cash flow and reduce debt.
Supportive ifAll three vessels are sold and delivered by the fourth calendar quarter of 2026.
Worry ifAny of the vessel sales are delayed or canceled past Q4 2026.
Why it matters: More board members would show better management and planning for the company.
Supportive ifNew directors will join the board after Christopher Wiernicki is named.
Worry ifNo new updates about board expansion.
Why it matters: Selling three VLGCs would show that Dorian is renewing its fleet and returning cash.
Supportive ifAll three VLGCs are sold and delivered by the fourth calendar quarter of 2026.
Worry ifOne or more vessel sales are delayed past Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Regular dividends signal strong cash flow and shareholder return. A pause could raise concerns.
Supportive ifAn unusual dividend will be announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo dividend is declared in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If TCE rates rise above $100,000, it shows strong demand and revenue potential. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifCompany reports fixing at least 34% of its calendar days at rates above $100,000 per day.
Worry ifTCE rates remain below $100,000 per day for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A dividend shows trust in financial health and plans to return money to investors.
Supportive ifManagement will announce a special dividend in Q3 2026, like in past quarters.
Worry ifNo dividend is announced. This may mean there are financial worries.
Why it matters: Details on the new dual-fuel VLGC would show Dorian's commitment to fleet renewal and efficiency.
Supportive ifThey confirm details about the new building contract and when it will be delivered.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the newbuilding contract are announced.
Why it matters: Maintaining high TCE rates is key for revenue growth. A drop could signal weakness in demand.
Supportive ifTCE rates remain above $68,000 per day for at least two consecutive quarters.
Worry ifTCE rates fall below $68,000 per day for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: High daily rates are crucial for revenue. They indicate strong demand in the shipping market.
Supportive ifDaily rates remain above $30,000 per day for the next quarter.
Worry ifDaily rates drop below $25,000 per day for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: High daily rates show strong demand for Dorian's fleet. This supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifReported daily charter rates exceed $88,000 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifDaily charter rates fall below $88,000 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The new VLGCs will enhance fleet efficiency and support long-term growth.
Supportive ifHanwha Ocean built its first new VLGC.
Worry ifThere are delays or cancellations in contracts with Hanwha Ocean.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$206 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $398 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,712 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.