Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.08-6.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LPG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -19.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LPG — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-29
Regulation FD Disclosure On October 30, 2026, Dorian LPG Ltd. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing that its Board of Directors has declared an irregular dividend of $1.25 per share of the Company’s common stock. The irregular dividend is payable on or about November 24, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 9, 2026. This is an irregular dividend. Future declarations of dividends are subject to the determination and di…
Why it matters: Dorian says the seven-year loan will replace several facilities and save interest and principal payments each day. Later results can test that claim.
Supportive ifA later filing shows lower daily interest and principal payments. The new loan replaced the old facilities.
Worry ifA later filing shows no drop in those payments, or reports higher loan costs tied to the refinancing.
Why it matters: June-quarter TCE rose 91.1% year over year, while September rates were unusually high. A sharp fall would weaken the recent earnings picture.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows fleet TCE below $75,926 per available day, the rate for the June quarter.
Less concerning ifFleet TCE stays at or above $75,926 per available day in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Dorian fixed 99% of September days above $88,000 per day. Results can show if those high rates lifted fleet earnings.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 5, Dorian reports a fleet TCE rate above $88,000 per available day for the quarter ended Sept. 30.
Worry ifOn Nov. 5, Dorian reports a fleet TCE rate below $75,926 per available day, its June-quarter rate.
Why it matters: The $345 million order adds three newer ships, with delivery dates from June through December 2030. Cost or timing changes would test the fleet renewal plan.
Watch forDorian reports all three ships remain on schedule for delivery in June, September, and December 2030. The total price has not risen above $345 million.
Also watch forDorian reports a delay past 2030, cancels an order, or raises the total price above $345 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,712 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.