Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC (LPLA)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$300.89-3.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
30.12 → 29.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LPLA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lower Core G&A costs | A supporting condition in LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is <= $2,190 million. | Intact | Core G&A costs exceed $2,190 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-services growth and execution story, supported by advisor recruitment and rising organic net new assets. The long-term thesis is intact, with momentum improving, but execution quality and recent financial performance remain mixed.
The evidence describes LPLA as expensive versus peers, despite a valuation divergence signal that calls it cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and priced-in fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a strong case that expectations are unusually fragile.
Near-term, three reported earnings beats and improved momentum are supportive, while recent results and earnings quality remain neutral. Organic net new assets increased through Q3, and the expense outlook narrowed and declined, but quarterly Core G&A still rose year over year. Commonwealth onboarding remains a key delivery test, with expected retention around 83% and completion still scheduled for Q4 2026.
The favorable case depends on a guidance recovery after the earlier reduction and continued organic asset growth. The unfavorable case includes rate cuts that weigh on Financials, or weaker sector earnings momentum if bellwethers stop beating and raising guidance. Commonwealth conversion and realized asset retention are also important execution tests.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LPLA’s thesis rests on turning asset growth and improved momentum into consistent execution, while addressing expensive peer-relative valuation and integration risks. The evidence supports an intact but mixed long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.3 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.3 |
Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.3 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The achievement of such expectations and objectives involves risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results, levels of activity or the timing of events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements.” “Members FINRA/SIPC. Throughout this communication, the terms "financial advisors" and "advisors" are used to refer to registered representatives and/or investment advisor representatives affiliated with LPL Financial or LPL Enterprise.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase operating income | LPL Financial is growing operating income strongly, from $368.8 million to $484.6 million. | Intact | operating income falls below $368.8 million next year | Operating income: $590.96M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $484.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026590,960,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth | A primary condition in LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= 17.8% YoY. | Improving | revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$29.35 → $29.86 · observed estimates
$23.36B → $23.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $29.35 | $23,356,933,450 | 15 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $29.53 | $23,689,591,041 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $29.35 | $23,356,933,450 | 15 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $29.53 | $23,689,591,041 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $29.35 | $23,356,933,450 | 15 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $29.35 | $23,356,933,450 | 15 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $29.53 | $23,689,591,041 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $29.81 | $23,873,042,476 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $29.81 | $23,873,042,476 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $29.74 | $23,620,782,380 | 16 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $29.74 | $23,620,782,380 | 16 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $29.74 | $24,047,782,380 | 16 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $29.74 | $24,047,782,380 | 16 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $29.86 | $24,098,307,990 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $29.86 | $24,098,307,990 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $29.95 | $23,988,262,434 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $30.02 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $30.03 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $30.03 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $30.03 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $30.03 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $29.96 | $24,049,154,460 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $29.96 | $24,049,154,460 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $29.99 | $24,049,154,460 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $29.99 | $24,049,154,460 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $29.99 | $24,049,154,460 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $29.99 | $24,049,154,460 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $29.99 | $24,049,154,460 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $29.99 | $24,049,154,460 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $29.99 | $24,049,154,460 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $29.99 | $24,054,386,212 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $30.07 | $24,052,695,421 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $30.07 | $24,052,695,421 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $30.07 | $24,052,695,421 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $30.08 | $24,103,225,356 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $30.07 | $24,086,140,119 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $30.07 | $24,086,140,119 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $30.12 | $24,086,140,119 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $30.11 | $24,086,138,244 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $30.22 | $24,056,011,772 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $30.19 | $23,890,870,401 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $30.18 | $23,890,870,401 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $30.18 | $23,890,870,401 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $30.29 | $23,967,104,779 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $30.29 | $23,967,104,779 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $30.41 | $24,009,215,890 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $30.38 | $24,009,215,890 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $30.37 | $23,953,242,876 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $30.27 | $23,863,455,001 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $29.97 | $23,815,047,313 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $29.92 | $23,758,203,142 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $29.87 | $23,758,203,142 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $29.87 | $23,758,203,142 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $29.87 | $23,758,203,142 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $29.86 | $23,758,203,142 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $29.86 | $23,758,203,142 | 13 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.