LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC (LPLA)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$300.89-3.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LPLA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LPLA — director transition
Dated 2026-01-08
Director — Somesh Khanna: Mr. Khanna was elected as a director of the Company.
Why it matters: LPL narrowed its 2026 cost outlook to $2.14 billion to $2.16 billion. Spending above that range would miss its latest cost plan.
Worry ifLPL reports 2026 Core G&A above $2.16 billion.
Less concerning ifLPL reports 2026 Core G&A at or below $2.16 billion.
Why it matters: Q3 organic net new assets rose to $29 billion from $21 billion in Q1. Another strong quarter would support the growth trend.
Supportive ifA future quarter reports organic net new assets of at least $29 billion, or annualized growth of at least 5%.
Worry ifA future quarter reports less than $21 billion in organic net new assets, or growth below 4% per year.
Why it matters: Recruited assets fell from $25 billion in Q2 to $24 billion in Q3. Further drops would weaken evidence of advisor growth.
Worry ifA future quarter reports less than $24 billion in recruited assets.
Less concerning ifA future quarter reports more than $25 billion in recruited assets.
Why it matters: LPL began rolling out its own AI agent to advisors. Wider access would show progress on this stated platform effort.
Supportive ifLPL reports that Cyan access has expanded beyond the initial advisor rollout.
Worry ifLPL reports that Cyan access has not expanded, or that its rollout is delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,226 loss on $10,000 · 32.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The conversion is due in Q4. Retention fell from about 90% to 83%, so the result tests the deal's scale.
Watch forLPL completes the conversion in Q4 and reports retention at or above 83%.
Also watch forThe conversion slips past Q4, or reported retention falls below 83%.
Why it matters: Client cash was $57 billion in both Q2 and Q3, while its share of client assets fell year over year. A further drop may pressure cash-related income.
Worry ifReported client cash balances fall below $57 billion in a later quarter.
Less concerning ifReported client cash balances rise above $57 billion and exceed 2.2% of client assets.