Open Lending Corp. (LPRO)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.140.00%
Close 2026-08-07 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Open Lending aims to grow total certified loans to 25,000 by Q2 2026. The company targets adjusted EBITDA between $25M and $29M for 2026. Recent M&A activity could strengthen its market position. Positive guidance supports cautious optimism.
The company is currently loss-making with declining cash flow. Revenue has fallen from $24.3M to $20.5M in recent quarters. Management changes and litigation pose risks. Achieving profit targets remains uncertain.
The price is about 46% above our fair value near $2. Analysts expect about 20% revenue growth. Our fair value is 32% below the Street median, reflecting skepticism on execution and profitability.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $25 million in 2026
Deliver Adjusted EBITDA within the guided range of $25 to $29 million for full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.0 million in 2026-Q1, down from $3.2 million in 2025-Q1. Management guides for $25 to $29 million Adjusted EBITDA for full year 2026. The trajectory shows a decline in quarterly Adjusted EBITDA but management maintains the full year target.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state reflects a watchful approach due to recent volatility and mixed signals from management.
The market seems to price in a fragile situation, with an expensive valuation compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the current price may not fully reflect the risks and uncertainties surrounding LPRO.
Fundamentals may struggle in the near term, given the recent decline in certified loans and Adjusted EBITDA. Management's targets for growth remain, but the trajectory shows weakness, and the probability of missing earnings is notable.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their targets, particularly in increasing certified loans and achieving Adjusted EBITDA goals. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP will be crucial in determining the overall momentum for LPRO.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $25 to $29 million for the full year 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA was $2.0 million during the first quarter of 2026.”
Breaks if: cash from operations remains negative over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: total certified loans fall below 22,000 in Q2 2026
Grow the volume of total certified loans to meet or exceed quarterly and annual guidance targets.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total certified loans were 21,064 in 2026-Q1, down from 27,638 in 2025-Q1, showing a decline. Management expects 22,000 to 25,000 loans in 2026-Q2 and 100,000 to 110,000 for full year 2026. The trajectory shows a recent decline but management is targeting growth going forward.
“Total certified loans expected to be between 22,000 and 25,000 for the second quarter of 2026.”
“We exceeded the high end of our certified loan guidance for the first quarter.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, LPRO's performance will depend on management execution and external sector influences. Not investment advice.