Open Lending Corp. (LPRO)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.140.00%
Close 2026-08-07 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LPRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 91.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LPRO — officer appointment
Dated 2026-07-31
Director — Jessica Buss, Abhijit Chaudhary, Eric A. Feldstein, Thomas K. Hegge, Blair J. Greenberg, Todd C. Hart: Multiple directors ceased serving in connection with a Merger.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Open Lending is making more money. It is an important sign of financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in Q2 2026 is at least $25 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 is less than $25 million.
Why it matters: Delisting would affect trading and cash flow. It shows the company is moving to private ownership after the merger.
Worry ifNasdaq confirms the delisting of Open Lending shares.
Less concerning ifNasdaq does not proceed with the delisting as planned.
Why it matters: More certified loans are important for Open Lending's future money and profits.
Supportive ifTotal certified loans increase by more than 5% compared to Q1.
Worry ifTotal certified loans decrease or grow less than 0% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Better cash from operations is key for funding growth. Negative cash flow raises worries about finances.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported in Q2 2026 is positive.
Worry ifCash from operations in Q2 2026 is still negative.
Why it matters: Delays from regulations could change the merger timeline and Open Lending's plans.
Worry ifNo regulatory problems are reported. The merger can move forward as planned.
Less concerning ifRegulatory problems come up that delay or stop the merger.
Why it matters: The merger is critical for Open Lending's future. It could provide new capital and resources for growth.
Supportive ifThe merger is successfully completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe merger faces delays or fails to close by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Open Lending.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above or at the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Court cases can affect business and money. Bad results could harm the company's name and stock.
Worry ifCourt case ends with a good result for the company.
Less concerning ifCourt case ends with a ruling against the company.
Why it matters: This metric shows if Open Lending is reversing its recent decline in loan volume. A strong recovery in certified loans is key to growth.
Supportive ifTotal certified loans reported for Q2 2026 meet or exceed 25,000.
Worry ifTotal certified loans reported for Q2 2026 fall below 22,000.
Why it matters: The merger will affect Open Lending's growth and stability. A successful deal may bring new resources.
Supportive ifIf the merger closes, Open Lending will be a part of ANV.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close by Q3 2026 due to regulatory or shareholder issues.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for Open Lending's finances. It shows operational stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive and shows consistent growth in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows better profits and efficiency. It is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is $29 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is less than $25 million.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$64 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $596 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,161 loss on $10,000 · 51.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.