Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
LightPath Technologies Inc (LPTH)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.15-13.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.11 → 0.11 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LPTH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain order backlog near $97.8 million to support future revenue | The company has a strong $97.8 million order backlog supporting future sales. | Intact | order backlog falls below $90 million in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business with a loss-making profile, not an established earnings compounder. The multi-year thesis has evidence of strong revenue and backlog growth, but its current state is watch after the signal shifted to cautious.
LPTH trades at a substantial premium to peers, and the valuation evidence points to a durable premium with expectations modestly above the model’s baseline. The premium is marked as justified, with low fragility, but weak recent performance and the expensive valuation leave limited room for execution to disappoint.
Over the multi-year view, results depend on converting backlog and adding capacity: revenue rose from $37.2 million in fiscal 2025 to $71.7 million in fiscal 2026, while reported backlog grew to $110.9 million from $37.4 million. Near term, performance is weak relative to its industry cohort, and earnings surprises are trending down; a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk. Management’s Western-aligned manufacturing plan has mixed status because the divestiture and supply continuity were not yet complete.
The central swing factor is whether backlog conversion and added capacity sustain revenue growth without a guidance cut. Near term, rate cuts and steadier results from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance could weigh on the business outlook. The manufacturing transition also matters because completion and supply continuity remain prospective.
The 1-3 year view has real growth evidence, but remains high risk and dependent on execution against backlog, capacity, and manufacturing plans. The expensive peer valuation and weak recent performance keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in LightPath Technologies Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.03. |
| Improving |
| EPS remains negative or below $0.00 in 2026-Q3 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.06 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.03. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Sep 11, 2026-0.0639 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 71% year over year to $19.1 million in Q3 2026 | LightPath is growing revenue fast, up 109% year over year to $19.1 million in Q3 2026. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 71% in 2026-Q3 | Revenue: $21.162M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=71% YoY to $19.1 million. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Sep 11, 202621,162,352 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.51 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$0.14B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.51 | $139,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.11 | $160,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.11 | $160,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.11 | $160,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.11 | $160,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.11 | $145,853,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.