LightPath Technologies Inc (LPTH)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.67+0.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LPTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 55.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
LPTH — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, LightPath Technologies, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”) with North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP (the “Selling Stockholder”) and certain institutional investors for the purchase and sale of an aggregate of 7,142,800 shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Class A Common Stock”), of which 3,5…
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals that LightPath is successfully executing its growth strategy. It also reflects demand for its products.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth exceeds 100% year over year compared to Q4 2025.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth falls below 80% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth continues after a recent earnings beat.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 100% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 50% year over year.
Why it matters: The equity offering could give needed funds for growth. It is important to watch its effect on share price.
Watch forThe share price stays steady or goes up after the offering, showing good market response.
Also watch forThe share price drops a lot after the offering, showing bad market feelings.
Why it matters: Finishing this redesign is key for meeting camera demand. It will improve competition.
Supportive ifThe G5 infrared camera redesign is completed by the end of summer 2026.
Worry ifThe redesign is delayed beyond the end of summer 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$466 on $10,000 · ±4.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,201 loss on $10,000 · 12.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,826 loss on $10,000 · 48.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: How the company uses debt can affect its financial health and growth strategy.
Watch forA successful debt issuance raised over $10 million.
Also watch forA debt issuance had bad terms or raised less than $5 million.
Why it matters: A strong order backlog shows demand for products. It can lead to future revenue growth.
Supportive ifAn increase in the order backlog reported above $100 million.
Worry ifA decrease in the order backlog reported below $90 million.
Why it matters: This sale helps LightPath move to a Western manufacturing base. It may lower risks and boost its market position.
Supportive ifThe sale closes. There are no reported problems.
Worry ifThe sale has delays or problems that affect operations.
Why it matters: This sale helps the company’s manufacturing plans in the West.
Supportive ifThe sale of LightPath (Zhenjiang) Optical Instrumentation Co., Ltd. is done.
Worry ifThe divestiture does not close as expected or faces delays.
Why it matters: A drop below 100% growth would raise concerns about demand and execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 100% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 100% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in backlog may show weaker customer demand. This could lead to revenue problems.
Worry ifOrder backlog drops below $110.6 million.
Less concerning ifOrder backlog increases or stays above $110.6 million.