LightPath Technologies Inc (LPTH)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.15-13.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LPTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 57.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 66.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 31 industry peers
LPTH — earnings in line
Dated 2026-09-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 10, 2026, LightPath Technologies, Inc. issued a press release announcing the results for its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full year ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: About $85.6 million of backlog was due within 12 months. Q1 results will show how much shipped and how much remains.
Watch forOn November 10, LightPath reports Q1 revenue above $21.2 million and backlog below $110.9 million. No new order drop is reported.
Also watch forQ1 revenue is at or below $21.2 million, while backlog stays near or above $110.9 million.
Why it matters: The sale removes China operations, but the buyer is set to keep supplying some products. A close without supply trouble would support the transition.
Watch forLightPath confirms the sale closed. It reports no major supply, quality, or service impact from the buyer.
Also watch forThe sale fails to close, or LightPath reports a supply, quality, or service problem tied to the buyer.
Why it matters: LightPath reported positive adjusted EBITDA for four straight quarters, but it still had a net loss. The next result tests whether gains continue.
Worry ifQ1 adjusted EBITDA is below zero, compared with $2.1 million in Q4. Or, the company reports another quarterly net loss.
Less concerning ifQ1 adjusted EBITDA stays above zero and the net loss narrows from $4.1 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$405 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,077 loss on $10,000 · 10.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,612 loss on $10,000 · 66.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.