Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-09-30 · fmp
Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$44.72-4.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LQDT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth in registered buyers and geographic reach | A primary condition in Liquidity Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is registered buyers >=6.3 million. | Intact | registered buyers growth falls below 3% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented marketplace business with a durable-premium valuation, rather than a turnaround. The thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but earnings quality remains fragile.
LQDT is valued at an expensive premium to peers, with evidence pointing to a meaningful expectations gap. The premium reflects expectations for durable growth, while the priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified because execution quality is weak; the evidence does not show that fragility is broadly concentrated.
Near-term results have been strong: GMV rose 10% from 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q3, while revenue rose 8%, and management is on track with its stated growth and buyer-expansion priorities. An August earnings beat and an October acquisition announcement and completion support the recent improvement, but a prior deep miss and fragile earnings quality remain risks; the estimated near-term miss probability is 23%.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining marketplace growth and avoiding a guidance cut. A cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from sector bellwether PEW could support the industrial-sector backdrop; PEW misses or lower guidance would weaken that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business setup is improving, but the expensive valuation and fragile earnings quality make durable execution central to the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending stays steady near $2 million per quarter. |
| Intact |
| CAPEX rises above $3 million per quarter sustainably |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We expect to allocate capital to high-quality internal growth initiatives, complementary acquisitions, and targeted share repurchases.” “Capital expenditures are expected to remain consistent with recent levels of approximately $2 million per quarter.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Profitable growth via technology-enabled marketplace expansion | A primary condition in Liquidity Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=18% YoY segment direct profit growth and >=37% YoY adjusted EBITDA growth. | Intact | segment direct profit growth or adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 10% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During Q3, our marketplaces drove continued growth in seller adoption and buyer liquidity resulting in a 17% increase in the number of completed transactions, expanded margins and strong free cash flow.” “Our marketplace platform business continued to demonstrate its scalability during the quarter, as growth in asset-light solutions, improved transaction margins, and disciplined execution drove strong operating leverage across the business.” Revenue was $120.732 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.70 → $1.84 · observed estimates
Unavailable → $0.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.70 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.70 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.84 | $251,136,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.