Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.11+3.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LQDT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -46.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LQDT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-26
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Credit Agreement On June 22, 2026, Liquidity Services, Inc. (the “Company”) and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association (the “Lender”) entered into the Fourth Amendment to Credit Agreement, which amends that certain Credit Agreement by and between the Company and the Lender, dated February 10, 2022 (as previously amended, the “Credit Agreement”) by extending the term of the Credit Agreement from March 31, 2027 to March 31, 2028. All othe…
Why it matters: The industrial sector is growing. A rebound in growth could help Liquidity Services.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up above 8% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows down below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Going above this level shows good pricing and cost control. It can improve overall profits.
Supportive ifGross profit exceeds $60M in Q3.
Worry ifGross profit stays below $55M in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA means the company earns more from its operations.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA is over $22 million in Q4.
Worry ifNon-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA is below $22 million in Q4.
Why it matters: GovDeals is growing fast. This shows the market is expanding and more people are using it.
Supportive ifGovDeals GMV growth exceeds 9% in Q4.
Worry ifGovDeals GMV growth is less than 9% in Q4.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $335 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,153 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management aims to increase revenue growth. A positive trend signals progress.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Growing the buyer base is crucial for expanding market share and revenue.
Supportive ifRegistered buyers increase to more than 6.4 million.
Worry ifRegistered buyers fall or stay below 6.4 million.
Why it matters: Higher profit margins show better efficiency. This means the company controls costs well.
Supportive ifDirect profit margins exceed 40% for the fiscal third quarter.
Worry ifDirect profit margins fall below 40% for the fiscal third quarter.
Why it matters: High profit growth shows strong efficiency. This means the marketplace is strong.
Supportive ifRSCG segment profit growth is over 30%. This shows they are making more money.
Worry ifRSCG segment profit growth is under 30%. This shows possible operational problems.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how much money the company expects to make next quarter. It also shows how efficient the company will be.
Supportive ifQ4 GAAP net income is over $13 million. This shows strong operational performance.
Worry ifQ4 GAAP net income is under $10 million. This suggests issues in cost management or revenue.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show management believes in the company's value. It also shows they want to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare buybacks exceed the remaining $15 million.
Worry ifIf no share repurchases happen, it may show worries about cash use or market conditions.
Why it matters: More share buybacks mean management trusts the company's value and future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases were above $5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or a decrease in buyback activity was reported.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is managing costs well. It shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 10% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income grows less than 10% in Q3.
Why it matters: Consignment GMV is important for making money. Growth here shows good management of retail operations.
Supportive ifRSCG consignment GMV growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifRSCG consignment GMV growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: New agency clients drive growth in the GovDeals segment. More clients indicate strong market demand and expansion.
Supportive ifMore than 500 new agency clients signed in the quarter.
Worry ifFewer than 500 new agency clients signed. This shows slower growth.
Why it matters: This guidance shows management expects growth and market demand. Meeting this range means strong performance.
Supportive ifQ4 GMV reported within the guidance range of $415 million to $455 million.
Worry ifQ4 GMV is below $415 million. This shows weaker market conditions.
Why it matters: New accounts are a key driver of future revenue. A significant increase indicates strong demand for services.
Supportive ifGovDeals new accounts grow by more than 30% year over year.
Worry ifGovDeals new accounts grow by less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in GMV for this segment could signal issues with project timing or market demand.
Worry ifCAG segment GMV decreases by more than 1% quarter over quarter.
Less concerning ifCAG segment GMV increases or remains stable quarter over quarter.