Laird Superfood Inc (LSF)
AMEXConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.45-2.78%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LSF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 59.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 110.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
LSF — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-04
CFO — Mark Johnson: The filing discloses the appointment of a new external CFO, which is a significant management change but not a departure of an existing executive.
Why it matters: Mark Johnson became CFO on October 1. His first results report can show how the company tracks costs and savings from both deals.
Watch forThe next report lists specific integration costs and savings. It also reports lower integration costs than the prior quarter.
Also watch forThe next report shows higher integration costs than Q2, or gives no separate update on costs and savings.
Why it matters: Q2 sales included both acquired brands. Q3 results will show whether sales are on pace for the $138M low end of guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 sales plus reported first-half sales of $55.2M reach at least $103.5M, the pace needed to meet the $138M annual floor.
Worry ifQ3 sales plus first-half sales stay below $103.5M, putting the $138M annual floor out of reach at the reported pace.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin fell to 30.3% from 39.9% a year earlier. Mix, input costs, and Terrasoul's lower margins drove the drop.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 30.3%, extending the decline from Q2's reported margin.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is at or above 30.3%, showing no further drop from Q2.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $3.0M, while Q1 was a $1.1M loss. The next report tests whether profit gains can continue.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $3.1M. That would bring year-to-date adjusted EBITDA to $5.0M, halfway to the $8M floor.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $3.1M. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA is below $5.0M, so more of the annual target remains.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $759 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,521 loss on $10,000 · 55.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Amazon sales grew, but the company also reported weakness in its direct sales channel. The next report can show if that gap remains.
Worry ifThe company again reports weak direct sales. Amazon sales grow from a year ago.
Less concerning ifThe company reports direct sales growth from a year ago, with no further mention of weakness.
Why it matters: Laird launched coffees and creamers at about 1,000 Walmart stores in Q2. Wider placement would show progress in retail distribution.
Supportive ifThe company reports Laird coffees or creamers in more than 1,000 Walmart stores. Or it reports adding Walmart locations.
Worry ifThe company reports fewer than 1,000 Walmart stores carry these products, or reports that the launch ended.