Laird Superfood Inc (LSF)
AMEXConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.02+2.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LSF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 89.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 116.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LSF — director transition
Dated 2026-08-19
Director — Matthew Spanjers: The filing discloses the appointment of a new director, Matthew Spanjers, who is a designee of an investor (Nexus Capital affiliate), which is a governance change but not a departure of an existing executive.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows confidence in growth and market position. It shows management's focus.
Supportive ifManagement says they expect 2026 revenue of $138 to $148 million.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance. This may mean growth or integration issues.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance would indicate strong momentum post-acquisitions. It would show that the company is on track to meet its annual revenue target.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $34.5 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $30 million.
Why it matters: Successful integration will help Laird Superfood capture synergies and boost revenue. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue is growing. They also see early profits from the deals.
Worry ifIntegration problems may cause revenue to stop growing or lead to losses.
Why it matters: Completing the Navitas deal will help Laird offer more products. It will also help them reach more markets.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm that the Navitas deal is done.
Worry ifNo announcement means the Navitas deal is delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$376 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $755 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,809 loss on $10,000 · 68.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: E-commerce is a key growth area. Strong growth indicates successful online strategies and brand strength.
Supportive ifE-commerce sales grow year-over-year by more than 100% in the next quarter.
Worry ifE-commerce sales growth drops below 50% year-over-year, which may mean losing market share.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth is key to achieving the annual revenue target. It shows the effectiveness of recent acquisitions.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales growth of 20% or more year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth below 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good cost management and growth from acquisitions. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA goes up to $8 million. This shows growth and teamwork.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA stays under $8 million. This shows ongoing cost issues or integration problems.
Why it matters: Stability in e-commerce sales is crucial for overall revenue growth. It reflects consumer demand and market trends.
Watch forE-commerce sales grow year-over-year by more than 50%.
Also watch forE-commerce sales decline or grow less than 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may signal a recovery in demand. This could improve the company's financial health.
Supportive ifLaird Superfood's revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% year over year or continues to decline.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this growth shows strong progress from recent purchases. It will show that management believes they can meet their yearly goals.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 134% or more year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 134% year-over-year.