Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.65-1.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.85 → 1.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LTC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Diluted Core FAD per share near $2.86 | The company targets diluted core FAD per share near $2.86 and EPS around $1.84 in 2026. | Broken | Core FAD per share falls below $2.82 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LTC is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with a seniors housing growth angle, rather than a clear turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is currently intact, though recent momentum has weakened and the next earnings update matters.
LTC is valued at a premium to peers, and the expectations gap is negative, which points to expectations that may be demanding. The pricing signal is described as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not show that weak execution alone has created a broader valuation warning.
Near term, management has reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance in each of the last three quarters, and reported diluted earnings per share rose from the first to the second quarter. Liquidity has also been expanded, but recent momentum fell sharply, and the evidence flags a meaningful chance of a miss given the industry’s recent pattern and LTC’s prior earnings miss.
For the multi-year thesis, progress expanding the Seniors Housing Operating Portfolio and continued delivery against guidance are key. Near term, Federal Reserve rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while a guidance reduction or signs of weakness at sector peers could remove support.
Over the next one to three years, LTC’s thesis rests on steady execution and seniors housing growth, against fragile earnings quality and an expensive valuation versus peers. Recent guidance delivery supports the thesis, but weaker momentum and the next earnings update remain important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets diluted core FAD per share near $2.86 and EPS around $1.84 in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.80 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $6.39 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 1.8 to 1.84 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20266.39 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $56 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose to $56.4 million in Q1 2026, showing improving profitability. | Intact | Operating income falls below $49.6 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $62.451M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $56.4 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202662,451,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.81 → $1.86 · observed estimates
$0.41B → $0.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.81 | $411,932,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.81 | $411,932,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.65 | $571,052,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.50 | $610,462,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.50 | $610,462,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.84 | $394,572,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.86 | $398,197,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.84 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.84 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.84 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.84 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.84 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.86 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.86 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.86 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.86 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.86 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.86 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.86 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.85 | $396,436,024 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.85 | $392,098,424 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.85 | $392,098,424 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.85 | $392,098,424 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.85 | $392,098,424 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.85 | $392,098,424 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.87 | $397,131,224 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.87 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.87 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.86 | $398,403,624 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.