LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.21-1.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LTC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 6, 2026, LTC Properties, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement (the “ Agreement ”) with each of Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Huntington Securities, Inc., RBC Capital Markets, LLC, BTIG, LLC, M&T Securities, Inc. and Nomura Securities International, Inc. (acting through BTIG, LLC as agent), acting in their capacity as principa…
Why it matters: Hitting or beating the Core FAD guidance shows strong performance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 diluted Core FAD per share is between $0.68 and $0.70.
Worry ifQ2 2026 diluted Core FAD per share falls below $0.68.
Why it matters: Stable guidance shows management believes in earnings and steady operations. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifCore FFO per share guidance remains unchanged at $2.82 to $2.86 for 2026.
Worry ifCore FFO per share guidance is revised downward from $2.82 to $2.86 for 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in this percentage would show that the shift to SHOP is working.
Supportive ifSHOP as a percentage of gross investments increases to 45% by year-end 2026.
Worry ifSHOP percentage of gross investments remains below 40% by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows better cost and revenue management. This can build confidence.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is over 5% year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 0% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $200 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,318 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows that the SHOP strategy is working.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or remains flat year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in SHOP NOI shows the effectiveness of the strategic shift and impacts future earnings.
Supportive ifSHOP NOI growth reported above 22% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifSHOP NOI growth reported below 22% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This shows LTC is serious about growing its SHOP portfolio. This is important for making more money.
Supportive if$700 million in SHOP acquisitions completed by end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifAcquisitions fall short of $700 million by end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows the success of LTC's strategy to grow its SHOP segment. It indicates strong demand and operational performance.
Supportive ifSHOP portfolio reaches or exceeds 40% of proforma annualized NOI by end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifSHOP portfolio remains below 40% of proforma annualized NOI by end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings exceed analyst expectations and show a return to revenue growth.
Worry ifQ2 earnings missed expectations again. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could help LTC's performance. This would signal a positive shift in market conditions.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows better market conditions.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. This suggests ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows confidence in financial performance and growth.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS reported in Q2 2026 is within the $1.80 to $1.84 range.
Worry ifDiluted EPS reported in Q2 2026 is below $1.80.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance can signal stability in earnings. It can reassure investors.
Supportive ifManagement maintains or raises EPS guidance in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Sector headwinds can affect LTC's revenue growth. Understanding this can clarify future performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth speeds up to over 7% year over year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth slows below 5% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows earnings and operations are stable.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms diluted EPS guidance of $1.80 to $1.84 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers diluted EPS guidance from $1.80 to $1.84 for 2026.