Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Lantronix Inc (LTRX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.00-11.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.32 → 0.32 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LTRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Drone revenue reaches $14 million in fiscal 2026 | Lantronix is growing drone revenue to $14 million in fiscal 2026. | Improving | drone revenue fails to reach $10 million in fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth thesis, with unmanned systems providing a newer source of revenue. Management has met recent revenue goals, but the broader thesis remains in a watch state because recent financial performance trails its industry group.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes LTRX as cheap versus peers, while another shows a sizable premium to peers. The model labels the expectations gap as unjustified, but it does not provide enough detail to say exactly what growth the market assumes.
Near term, management has delivered Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue within guidance and reported fiscal 2026 unmanned systems revenue above the midpoint of its outlook. For the multi-year view, management aims for unmanned systems to reach 15% to 20% of fiscal 2027 revenue, while the recent CEO transition and a higher risk label add uncertainty.
The thesis hinges on continued unmanned systems growth and on management maintaining its guidance; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Near-term sector conditions could also matter: Federal Reserve rate cuts or stabilization among technology peers may help the backdrop, while continued pressure in the sector would remain a risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LTRX has a credible growth initiative with evidence of recent execution, but its multi-year thesis remains uncertain given high risk, weaker relative performance, and conflicting valuation signals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lantronix Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.28 per share. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $0.28 in fiscal 2027 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.01 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.28 per share. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 27, 2026-0.0064 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Q4 FY2026 revenue >= $29 million | A primary condition in Lantronix Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $29 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $29 million in Q4 FY2026 | Revenue: $31.154M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $29 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 27, 202631,154,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Unmanned systems revenue 15%-20% of total in fiscal 2027 | A supporting condition in Lantronix Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 15% to 20% of total revenue. | Intact | unmanned systems revenue share falls below 15% in fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.36 → $0.32 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.36 | $159,902,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.32 | $158,364,980 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.32 | $155,764,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.32 | $155,136,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.32 | $155,136,250 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.