Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp
LUCKY STRIKE ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION (LUCK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.75-15.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.11 → 0.11 EPS · FY ending Jun 28, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LUCK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $345M to $350M for FY 2026 | The company targets adjusted EBITDA near $347.5M. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $330M in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LUCK is a high-risk business with a fragile earnings record, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is currently intact, though recent earnings misses and mixed progress on management priorities leave execution under close watch.
The valuation evidence is mixed: LUCK is described as cheap versus peers, while the peer comparison also shows a premium. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the evidence does not clearly establish what the market already assumes.
For the multi-year view, fiscal 2026 revenue grew, but same-store revenue declined slightly, leaving profitable growth and cash-flow progress mixed. Near term, elevated miss risk follows recent earnings misses; lower capital spending and reduced waterpark labor costs are positives, while company-wide payroll costs rose.
A next-call guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. The thesis also depends on management turning revenue growth and spending discipline into stronger operating cash flow, with the current evidence still limited.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact but uncertain: revenue growth and cost controls offer support, while earnings misses, high risk, and mixed execution keep the burden of proof on the fundamentals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in LUCKY STRIKE ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is No further major executive departures in next 12 months. |
| Under Pressure |
| Another CEO or President departure within 12 months |
1 CEO departure vs 0 allowed CEO Lev Ekster resigned with severance in Feb 2026; Bobby Lavan promoted to President in Jun 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve net income performance toward profitability | Net income improved from a $12.7M loss to a $16.9M gain in Q3. | Broken | Net income remains negative for full FY 2026 | Net income: $-26.174M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Positive net income in FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 2026-26,174,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue guidance of $1,250M to $1,260M for FY 2026 | A primary condition in LUCKY STRIKE ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1,255M total revenue in FY 2026. | Under Pressure | Annual revenue falls below $1,200M in FY 2026 | Revenue: $303.948M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$1,255M total revenue in FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 2026303,948,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.11 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$1.33B → $1.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.11 | $1,334,846,000 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.