LUCKY STRIKE ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION (LUCK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.29+0.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LUCK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LUCK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 27, 2026, Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026, which ended on June 28, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02 (including the preliminary financial results and related information included in Exhibit 99.1 referenced under
Why it matters: Higher free cash flow means better capital management. It shows good performance and supports future growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow rises a lot compared to FY2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow decreases or remains flat compared to FY2026.
Why it matters: A larger decline would signal worsening trends in customer traffic and spending.
Worry ifSame-store revenue declines more than -2.5% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifSame-store revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Same-store revenue growth is a good sign. It shows recovery and better customer engagement.
Supportive ifSame-store revenue growth turns positive year over year in Q1 FY2027.
Worry ifSame-store revenue continues to decline year over year in Q1 FY2027.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue guidance of $1,250M to $1,260M shows strong business performance. It confirms management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $1,250M.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $1,250M.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $568 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,096 loss on $10,000 · 41.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If these savings are clear, it shows management can control costs and increase profits. This is important for future earnings.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up a lot in Q4 compared to Q3.
Worry ifOperating income does not improve or declines in Q4.
Why it matters: Better feelings could bring more people to entertainment places, increasing revenue. This is key for the sector's recovery.
Supportive ifThe consumer sentiment index rises above where it is now.
Worry ifThe consumer sentiment index drops even more.
Why it matters: Better net income shows improved financial health. It reflects success after recent losses.
Supportive ifNet income improves a lot, getting close to breakeven in FY2027.
Worry ifNet income remains negative or worsens in FY2027.
Why it matters: Rising net income shows that cost-cutting efforts are working.
Supportive ifNet income for Q4 exceeds $16.9 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q4 is less than $16.9 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows the company is getting better after recent problems. It shows strong demand and better operations.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth of 4% or more compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth falls below 4%.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows better profits. It also shows improved efficiency after missing past goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches or exceeds $340M in FY2027.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA remains below $340M in FY2027.
Why it matters: Higher spending could indicate a lack of financial discipline and impact cash flow.
Worry ifCapital spending for FY 2027 is at or below $90 million.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is over $90 million in FY 2027.