Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.61-17.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LULU
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $101 LULU trades at 8.1× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $198 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $80–$145. Note: our $198 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($80–$145). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $110.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $418.24 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $431.66 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $108.76 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$80.00 – $145.00 (median $110.50) · 20 analysts · as of 2026-09-04
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $167.04 |
| 15.1 |
| 11.05 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $217.37 | 10.4 | 19.62 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $182.35 | 16.1 | 11.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $168.69 | 15.3 | 11.05 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $72.54 | 0.8 | 88.37 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $74.27 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $185.49 | 15.1 | 12.27 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $112.32 | 15.1 | 7.43 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $277.34 | 16.1 | 17.24 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $214.77 | 15.3 | 14.07 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $93.95 | 0.8 | 114.45 | guidance | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $86.22 | 15.1 | 5.70 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $366.78 | 16.1 | 22.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $264.57 | 15.3 | 17.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $115.74 | 0.8 | 140.98 | guidance | medium |