Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$115.07-0.49%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $115.07. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $115 LULU trades at 9.3× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $197 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $88–$250. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $115.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $407.96 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $425.94 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $107.93 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$88.00 – $250.00 (median $115.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $255.99 |
| 23.2 |
| 11.05 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $271.91 | 13.9 | 18.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $216.03 | 19.5 | 11.08 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $255.99 | 23.2 | 11.05 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $179.37 | 2.1 | 86.02 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $73.82 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $155.25 | 14.1 | 11.05 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $307.07 | 23.2 | 13.25 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $224.32 | 23.2 | 9.68 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $328.56 | 19.5 | 16.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $315.38 | 23.2 | 13.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $242.42 | 2.1 | 116.26 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $191.28 | 14.1 | 13.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $205.41 | 23.2 | 8.87 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $434.52 | 19.5 | 22.29 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $392.04 | 23.2 | 16.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $301.34 | 2.1 | 144.51 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $237.77 | 14.1 | 16.92 | Analyst | medium |