Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.61-17.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve 2% to 4% revenue growth in 2026: Q2 FY26 rev -4.0% vs 2% target.
Lululemon aims for 2% to 4% revenue growth in 2026 with $11.15B revenue guidance. Profit per share is guided between $10.95 and $11.15. New store openings in India and board stability support growth. The company trades cheap with a P/E of 9.3 versus peers at 23.2.
Sales growth is pressured by slowing demand in China and brand controversies. Management is volatile with recent earnings cuts. Competition and tariff risks may hurt margins and revenue growth.
The market prices in about 8% revenue growth and a 42% discount to our fair value near $200. Our fair value is well above the Street median of $115, reflecting optimism on recovery and growth. Recent guidance cuts and earnings revisions show risks to these expectations.
Breaks if: China sales decline more than 5% YoY in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $10.95 in FY26
Major CEO departure or board instability occurs
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through product and marketing enhancements. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent mixed financial performance and elevated risks in the broader Consumer Discretionary sector.
The market appears to price LULU as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, the valuation reflects a low confidence in execution quality, indicating that investors are cautious about future performance.
Fundamentals may show limited progress in growth and margin improvement, as recent revenue trends have been declining. Management's focus on disciplined expense management and store expansion has not yet translated into stronger financial results.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including guidance updates from management, inflation trends, and the performance of sector peers like TJX and ROST. A negative guidance cut or rising inflation could weigh on LULU, while positive momentum in the sector could provide support.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 23.7 points (from -24.2 to -0.5) after fresh earnings.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Row no longer provisional (all expected sub-scores present).
Yes, our read has weakened. Lululemon lowered its full-year revenue guidance. This indicates ongoing operational challenges. UBS warned that earnings could decline faster due to operating issues. The new CEO's impact is uncertain and may delay improvements. Investor Michael Burry remains positive, calling the stock "screaming cheap.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LULU's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector headwinds and execute on its growth strategies. Not investment advice.
as of 2026-09-04