Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$111.77-0.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.42 → 8.40 EPS · FY ending Feb 1, 2028 · 21 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LULU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stabilize or grow sales in China market | A supporting condition in Lululemon Athletica's published investment case. The stated target is China sales stabilize or grow by at least 0% YoY. | Intact | China sales decline more than 5% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer discretionary growth business with a multi-year thesis tied to product strength, marketing, and store expansion. The thesis is currently intact, though recent operating trends are mixed and execution quality remains a concern.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and it has fallen from its earlier level; the model confidence is low. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to expectations being broadly stretched despite weak execution.
Near term, revenue has weakened, with declines in the last two reported quarters, while operating income and margin have also fallen. Store count and retail space have expanded, but product and marketing efforts have yet to show clear revenue progress; the recent earnings beat is a positive signal, while the next guidance update remains important.
The multi-year view hinges on whether stronger products and marketing can renew revenue growth while expense discipline stabilizes profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from sector bellwethers TJX, ROST, and BURL could support the sector backdrop; weakness at those peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LULU’s thesis rests on converting store expansion and product efforts into better revenue and margins, with management execution and consumer-sector conditions as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lululemon Athletica's published investment case. The stated target is EPS $10.95 to $11.15. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $10.95 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $2.92 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS $10.95 to $11.15. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 20262.92 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable and effective leadership | A supporting condition in Lululemon Athletica's published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership disruptions or negative governance events. | Improving | Major CEO departure or board instability occurs | Qualitative: CEO stabilized (Heidi O'Neill appointed), 2 senior departures CEO transition to permanent leadership, two officer departures, and routine board appointments reported. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2% to 4% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Lululemon Athletica's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% to 4% YoY growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -4.34% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2% to 4% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 2026-4.339742 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.34 → $8.40 · observed estimates
$11.37B → $10.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.34 | $11,373,620,524 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.34 | $11,373,620,524 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.31 | $11,353,014,142 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.28 | $11,341,225,011 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.28 | $11,341,225,011 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.28 | $11,341,225,011 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.28 | $11,341,225,011 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.28 | $11,341,225,011 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.28 | $11,341,225,011 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.18 | $11,310,155,057 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.18 | $11,310,155,057 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.18 | $11,310,155,057 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.18 | $11,311,488,390 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.18 | $11,311,488,390 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.18 | $11,311,488,390 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.18 | $11,311,488,390 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.18 | $11,311,488,390 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.18 | $11,311,488,349 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.28 | $10,956,428,536 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.94 | $10,477,311,579 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.94 | $10,477,311,579 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.94 | $10,477,311,579 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.84 | $10,436,210,858 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.84 | $10,436,210,858 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.67 | $10,375,369,104 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.60 | $10,347,470,959 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.60 | $10,347,470,959 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.60 | $10,347,470,959 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.60 | $10,347,470,959 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.42 | $10,307,289,429 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.42 | $10,307,288,096 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.42 | $10,307,288,096 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.42 | $10,307,288,096 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.42 | $10,307,288,096 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.42 | $10,307,288,096 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.42 | $10,307,288,096 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.42 | $10,307,288,096 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.44 | $10,314,257,062 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.44 | $10,314,257,062 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.44 | $10,314,257,062 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.44 | $10,314,257,062 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.44 | $10,314,257,062 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.44 | $10,314,257,062 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.43 | $10,314,460,279 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.43 | $10,314,460,279 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.43 | $10,314,460,279 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.40 | $10,309,578,270 | 21 / 25 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 29 Hold · 6 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.