Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$111.77-0.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LULU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 2.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers
LULU — officer change
Dated 2026-10-07
Chief Brand and Product Activation Officer — Nikki Neuburger: Two senior officers are departing as terminations without cause, representing a significant loss of management despite the simultaneous hiring of new executives.
Why it matters: Lululemon forecast a 10% to 11% revenue drop. A larger fall would deepen the recent sales decline.
Worry ifOn December 10, Q3 revenue is below $2.290 billion, or the company reports a drop worse than 11%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $2.290 billion, within the stated outlook range.
Why it matters: The new product and brand structure aims to build a stronger product line and guest connection. Filled roles would put named leaders in place to carry out that plan.
Supportive ifLululemon names a Chief Brand Officer. Maggie Gauger starts leading product.
Worry ifThe search for a Chief Brand Officer remains open, or Lululemon delays the new product structure.
Why it matters: Americas comparable sales fell 12% in Q2. Another decline would show that the largest region remains weak.
Worry ifQ3 Americas comparable sales fall year over year, after the 12% drop in Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 Americas sales at the same stores are flat or higher than a year ago.
Why it matters: Q2 earnings included $0.86 per share from tariff refunds and interest. Results below the Q3 outlook floor would add to pressure on profits.
Worry ifOn December 10, Q3 diluted earnings per share are below $0.93.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted earnings per share are at least $0.93, within or above the stated outlook range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,744 loss on $10,000 · 57.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.