Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.61-17.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LULU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LULU — director transition
Dated 2026-06-26
Director — Laura Gentile, Marc Maurer: The board appointed Laura Gentile and Marc Maurer as new directors.
Why it matters: Earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $1.76 to $1.81 is key for investor confidence. It reflects the company's ability to manage costs and drive profits.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS reported at or above $1.81.
Worry ifQ2 EPS reported below $1.76.
Why it matters: Better sales show the company can regain strength in North America.
Supportive ifSales in the Americas are up compared to last year.
Worry ifSales in the Americas keep falling compared to last year.
Why it matters: The EPS guidance shows they are confident in making money and being financially strong.
Supportive ifEPS for 2026 reported within the range of $10.95 to $11.15.
Worry ifEPS for 2026 reported below $10.95.
Why it matters: A new board member with experience can help the brand grow.
Supportive ifA new board member with apparel experience will be announced by October 1, 2026.
Worry ifNo new board member appointed by the deadline.
Why it matters: New board members may change the strategy. This could help improve company performance.
Watch forThe board appointments have led to positive changes in performance and strategy.
Also watch forThere is no clear improvement in performance or strategy after the new board members joined.
Why it matters: New board members can help Lululemon improve its plans and actions for growth.
Watch forInvestors liked the board's plans after the annual meeting.
Also watch forInvestors are not happy with board decisions or plans.
Why it matters: North America is important for lululemon's growth. Sales trends will show if the company can improve.
Worry ifSales in North America are improving. They are rising each year.
Less concerning ifSales in North America are falling. They keep going down each year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target is key for Lululemon's growth plans.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported at 4% or higher for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 2% for 2026.
Why it matters: Growth outside North America is key for overall revenue. North America is facing challenges.
Supportive ifInternational net revenue increased by more than 15% from last year.
Worry ifIf international net revenue growth is below 15%, it may mean the market is getting full.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding the $2.450 billion to $2.475 billion range shows growth momentum. This is crucial for the company's 2026 revenue target.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $2.475 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $2.450 billion.
Why it matters: Better sales show that customers want the brand again.
Supportive ifQ2 comparable sales increase above 1% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 comparable sales decline more than 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A bigger decline than expected shows sales problems. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue guidance falls below $2.290 billion, indicating a decline worse than -11%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net revenue guidance of $2.320 billion or more shows better performance.
Why it matters: Worse comparable sales show bigger problems with customer demand and brand strength.
Worry ifComparable sales decline worse than -10% year over year.
Less concerning ifComparable sales decline less than -10% year over year. This shows stabilization.
Why it matters: Ongoing share repurchases show management's confidence. They can help support the stock price.
Supportive ifThe company plans more share repurchases in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company stops or cuts its share repurchase program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,340 loss on $10,000 · 53.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.