Lumen Technologies (LUMN)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.98-10.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LUMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LUMN — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued
Dated 2026-09-25
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On September 25, 2026, Lumen Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”), acting pursuant to authorization from its board of directors, notified the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) of its intention to voluntarily de-list (i) the Company’s common stock, no par value per share (the “Common Stock”) and the associated preferred stock purchase rights, and (ii) the 6.500% Notes due 2051 and the 6.750% N…
Why it matters: Lumen's full-year free cash flow goal is $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion. Q3 cash flow will test progress toward that range.
Watch forQ3 free cash flow, excluding special items, is at least $475 million, keeping the company on pace for $1.9 billion.
Also watch forQ3 free cash flow, excluding special items, is below $475 million, making the $1.9 billion low end harder to reach.
Why it matters: Lumen kept its full-year adjusted EBITDA goal at $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion. Q3 results will show progress toward that range.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, is at least $775 million. This keeps the company on pace for its $3.1 billion low end.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, is below $775 million. This puts the $3.1 billion low end further out of reach.
Why it matters: Strategic revenue grew 14% in Q2 and reached 53% of business revenue. More growth would support Lumen's shift to digital services.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 4 Q3 results, strategic revenue grows more than 14% year over year and NaaS use rises from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 strategic revenue grows 14% or less year over year, or NaaS use falls from Q2.
Why it matters: Lumen has worked to refinance debt and cut interest costs. Cash interest above its stated range would weaken that progress.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 net cash interest is between $650 million and $750 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 net cash interest is above $750 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$229 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $614 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,969 loss on $10,000 · 59.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lumen planned to move its stock and two Qwest notes to Nasdaq in October. A delay or failed listing condition would disrupt that plan.
Worry ifLUMN, CTGG, and CTHH trade on Nasdaq from Oct. 6, 2026, as planned.
Less concerning ifAny of the three securities fails to list on Nasdaq by Oct. 6, or Lumen reports a delay or listing-rule problem.