Lumen Technologies (LUMN)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.77-2.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LUMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
LUMN — director transition
Dated 2026-08-04
Director — John Hinshaw: Mr. John Hinshaw was appointed to the Board and certain committees.
Why it matters: If revenue stays steady or grows, it shows Lumen is making progress.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenue shows no decline compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue declines further from Q1 2026 results.
Why it matters: Strong Free Cash Flow shows financial health. It helps Lumen's growth plans.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow in Q3 exceeds $500 million.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow in Q3 is below $400 million.
Why it matters: Successful debt issuance will show if Lumen can handle its financial duties.
Supportive ifLumen completes more debt issuance beyond the $1 billion it has already raised.
Worry ifLumen does not complete more debt issuance or faces higher borrowing costs.
Why it matters: The sale could greatly change Lumen's cash flow and focus.
Watch forLumen says the sale has a positive cash flow effect in the next report.
Also watch forLumen reports a negative cash flow impact from the divestiture.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$257 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $621 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,207 loss on $10,000 · 52.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This aligns with management's goal to make money.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income shows a positive change compared to Q1's $602 million.
Worry ifQ2 operating income drops or stays under $602 million.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is key for Lumen's financial health. It shows success in managing costs.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to over $700M in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $500M. This shows cost management is getting worse.
Why it matters: Refinancing can lower interest costs. This helps Lumen's finances.
Watch forManagement says they have refinanced at least $1 billion in debt.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays or problems with refinancing plans.
Why it matters: The divestiture will impact Lumen's finances. It will show how much it can grow.
Supportive ifLumen reports a big drop in debt and better cash flow after the divestiture.
Worry ifLumen may face unexpected costs or losses from the divestiture. This could hurt cash flow.
Why it matters: The earnings report will give details about Lumen's operating income. It will also show their overall performance.
Watch forThe earnings report shows that operating income improved from Q1 2026.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a drop in operating income from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well Lumen is managing the divestiture. They will also show ongoing relationships.
Supportive ifLumen reports $60 million in revenue from transition services in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo revenue was reported from transition services. This shows poor execution.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising Free Cash Flow guidance shows strong cash flow and good finances.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms or raises Free Cash Flow guidance above $2.1 billion for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers Free Cash Flow guidance below $1.9 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted EBITDA means better efficiency. It helps Lumen grow.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $800 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $750 million.
Why it matters: If it goes over 54%, it shows many people are using Lumen's digital services. This would help Lumen grow.
Supportive ifStrategic revenue growth exceeds 54% of total business revenue in Q3.
Worry ifStrategic revenue growth remains at or below 53% of total business revenue in Q3.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss would mean Lumen is doing better in operations. It would also show better financial health.
Supportive ifNet loss improves compared to $(201) million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet loss worsens or remains the same compared to $(201) million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show Lumen is financially strong. It would also show they can handle debt.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow reaches $1.9 billion or more for the full year 2026.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow falls below $1.9 billion for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within this range would indicate Lumen is on track with its financial targets.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA remains between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion for the full year 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls outside the $3.1 to $3.3 billion range for the full year 2026.