Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.92+0.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.51 → 3.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LVS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share buybacks | A supporting condition in Las Vegas Sands's published investment case. The stated target is >= $740 million buybacks in 2026-Q1. | Under Pressure | Buybacks fall below $740 million in any quarter | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LVS is a large-scale casino and hospitality business with a multi-year view tied to growth in Macao and Singapore. The thesis remains intact, but management execution has weakened and recent results have been mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to LVS being cheap versus peers, while another shows a peer premium. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that estimate is low, and the priced-in assessment is classified as justified with low fragility.
Near term, earnings execution is a concern: LVS has missed in recent quarters, including an October miss, and the estimated miss probability is 38%. In 2026-Q3, total revenue was lower than a year earlier, while Macao revenue and gaming volumes showed some growth; capital returns were substantive, but growth investment delivery remains behind.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether Macao and Singapore investment produces steadier operating growth. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact but is less secure after repeated earnings misses and a decline in the management assessment. Progress on growth investment and upcoming guidance are the main swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We continued to execute our strategic objectives during the quarter in both Singapore and Macao while increasing the return of capital to shareholders, including through the repurchase of $950 million of our common stock during the quarter,” said Patrick Dumont, chairman and chief executive officer.” “Since the resumption of our share repurchase program in the fourth quarter of 2023 through June 30, 2026, we have repurchased 16.3% of our outstanding shares, approximately 124 million shares of our common stock at an average price of $48.49, for a total investment of $6.03 billion.”
Competitive position in Singapore | A supporting condition in Las Vegas Sands's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or improve market share in Singapore. | Under Pressure | Market share declines significantly in Singapore | EBITDA -17% vs sustain/improve target Q3 2026 earnings missed with 17% EBITDA decline and soft Singapore revenue trends, challenging the growth objective. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual earnings per share | It earned $0.85 per share, beating estimates. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.35 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.35 EPS in FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 23, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth in Macao and Singapore | Growth in Macao and Singapore drives future sales. | Broken | Revenue falls below $3.18 billion in any quarter | Revenue: $3.216B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.585 billion revenue in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 23, 20263,216,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.64 → $3.06 · observed estimates
$14.66B → $13.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.64 | $14,662,764,640 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.57 | $14,552,894,150 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.57 | $14,552,894,150 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.56 | $14,542,852,611 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.57 | $14,552,894,150 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.56 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.56 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.56 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.56 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.53 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.53 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.53 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.53 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.53 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.53 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.53 | $14,558,656,680 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.53 | $14,554,970,258 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.52 | $14,531,523,946 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.52 | $14,531,939,282 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.52 | $14,531,939,282 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.52 | $14,531,939,282 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.52 | $14,531,939,282 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.52 | $14,531,939,282 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.52 | $14,531,939,282 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.52 | $14,531,933,460 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.52 | $14,531,933,460 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.52 | $14,531,933,460 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.51 | $14,518,507,244 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.51 | $14,516,360,966 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.50 | $14,504,900,744 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.50 | $14,504,900,744 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.50 | $14,504,900,744 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.50 | $14,504,900,744 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.50 | $14,504,900,744 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.50 | $14,504,900,744 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.50 | $14,502,706,911 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.50 | $14,497,840,244 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.50 | $14,497,840,244 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.50 | $14,497,840,244 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.47 | $14,456,955,462 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.41 | $14,387,320,145 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.36 | $14,330,894,475 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.30 | $14,246,303,948 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.21 | $14,159,458,310 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.05 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.05 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.05 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.05 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.05 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.04 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.04 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.04 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.04 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.04 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.04 | $13,981,015,161 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.06 | $13,983,837,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.06 | $13,983,837,857 | 11 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 16 recorded
0 raises · 7 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.