Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.74+6.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LVS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LVS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2026, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference into this item. Within the Company’s third quarter ended September 30, 2026 press release, the Company makes reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures that supplement the Company’s c…
Why it matters: Adjusted property EBITDA fell from $1.34 billion to $1.12 billion in Q3. A further drop would extend the recent earnings decline.
Worry ifQ4 property EBITDA is below $1.12 billion. It is also below the prior-year quarter.
Less concerning ifQ4 property EBITDA rises above $1.12 billion or grows from the prior year.
Why it matters: Sands China priced $1 billion of notes at 6.4% and 6.7%. Watch whether new debt raises interest costs or pressures earnings.
Worry ifA filing shows the notes were issued, and Sands China interest expense rises year over year in its next results.
Less concerning ifThe notes are not issued, or Sands China reports no year-over-year rise in interest expense.
Why it matters: Macao revenue rose 1.8% in Q3, and gaming volumes grew across all segments. A stronger gain would support management's investment plan.
Supportive ifQ4 Macao revenue is above $1.94 billion and above the prior-year quarter.
Worry ifQ4 Macao revenue is below $1.94 billion or falls year over year.
Why it matters: LVS repurchased $950 million of shares in Q3, but future buybacks depend on earnings and cash needs. A sharp slowdown would weaken this capital return.
Watch forLVS repurchases at least $950 million of its common stock in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forLVS repurchases less than $500 million in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $281 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,839 loss on $10,000 · 48.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The expansion adds suites and an arena. MBS revenue fell year over year in Q3, making progress and property results key tests.
Watch forThe company reports a clear MBS expansion milestone. MBS revenue rises above $1.294 billion year over year.
Also watch forThe project is delayed or MBS revenue falls below $1.294 billion year over year again.