Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lifeway Foods, Inc. (LWAY)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.20-0.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.28 → 1.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LWAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operations to $4.38 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations improves to $4.38 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $1 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations: $-339,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $4.38 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 2026-339,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented consumer staples business, not a proven durable compounder yet. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue growth is strong, but earnings quality is fragile and risks are elevated.
LWAY trades at a 2.57-times premium to peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and an expectations gap of 0.72. The evidence flags the premium as unjustified given weak execution quality, even though the valuation measure has fallen recently.
Near-term sales momentum is strong: first-half 2026 net sales grew 29.9% year over year, and the company has recorded 27 consecutive quarters of annual sales growth. Profitability is less certain because gross margin fell to 19.5% in 2026-Q2 amid elevated milk prices; management expects recovery and improvement in 2027, but the latest quarter was an earnings miss and recent surprises have been erratic.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustained revenue growth translating into better margins, and on the Waukesha expansion being completed as planned in early 2027. Near term, another guidance cut or further weakening in jobs could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strength from sector peers could support the staples backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LWAY combines strong growth with a credible path to improved margins, but that path is not yet proven and the valuation premium leaves little room for weak execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rises with operating income reaching $6.33 million in Q1 2026. |
| Broken |
| operating income falls below $4 million in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $600,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $6.33 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 2026600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue to about $212.5 million in fiscal 2026 | Lifeway Foods grows revenue to about $212.5 million in 2026. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $200 million in FY26 | Revenue: $66.893M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$212.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202666,893,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.48 → $1.28 · observed estimates
$0.28B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.48 | $285,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.24 | $292,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.24 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.28 | $298,443,700 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.