Lifeway Foods, Inc. (LWAY)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.30+0.31%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LWAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 84.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
LWAY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
of Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, or incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin fell to 19.5% as milk and packaging costs rose. Recovery would support management's 2027 margin plan.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is above 23%, up from 19.5% in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin stays at or below 19.5%, or management says the cost pressure will last into 2027.
Why it matters: The expansion adds capacity as demand grows. A delay could limit the company’s ability to serve new orders.
Supportive ifLifeway reports the Waukesha expansion is done by early 2027. It gives a date for added production capacity.
Worry ifLifeway reports the expansion is delayed past early 2027. Or it says planned capacity is not ready to produce goods.
Why it matters: Farmer Cheese is gaining shelf space and may add sales beyond kefir. Slower sales could weaken the case for this growth line.
Supportive ifNew results show Farmer Cheese sales and store reach above $3.0 million and 27% ACV for its conventional 16oz product.
Worry ifNew results show lower Farmer Cheese sales or store reach than the reported $3.0 million and 27% ACV.
Why it matters: Lifeway has posted 27 straight quarters of sales growth. A slower Q3 could weaken the growth story.
Worry ifOn the November 11 earnings call, Q3 net sales growth is below 20% year over year, or sales fall below $66.9 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales rise at least 20% year over year and set a new quarterly record above $66.9 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $378 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,672 loss on $10,000 · 36.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.