Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.35-2.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.76 → 0.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LXU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow exceeds $20 million | It expects free cash flow above $20 million in 2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $15 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-36.558M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $20 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026-36,558,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LXU is a cyclical materials business with an improving operating picture, not a steady compounder. The multi-year view is intact this week after a recent earnings beat, but uneven results and elevated risk keep the thesis dependent on continued execution.
The valuation evidence points to LXU being cheap versus peers, with expectations close to the model’s baseline and no major fragility signals. Valuation has weakened recently, while company momentum improved, suggesting the market’s expectations remain restrained rather than assuming a smooth recovery.
Near term, earnings remain hard to judge: LXU had a recent beat after a July miss, and erratic surprises plus a high-miss-rate industry make the next report a watch point. Across the reported quarters, operating income rose even as revenue declined; management is also focused on reliability, production, and product mix, with mixed evidence of progress. The El Dorado carbon capture project is still in progress, and the supplied evidence does not show it operating.
The thesis depends on continued gains in facility reliability and commercial execution, alongside delivery of the carbon capture project. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers DOW, DD, and CE would support the sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LXU’s thesis rests on turning operating progress into steadier results while managing elevated earnings and execution risks. The recent beat and sector support are constructive, but the evidence does not yet show consistent revenue growth or project completion. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| LSB is improving profit with operating income up to $23.2 million. |
| Under Pressure |
| operating income falls below $15 million next quarter |
Operating income: $26.807M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $23 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 202626,807,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Turnaround at Pryor, Oklahoma facility starts on time | The company plans a turnaround at its Pryor facility. | Intact | Turnaround delayed beyond 2026-Q3 | Turnaround initiated May 2026 vs mid-2026 target May 2026 8-K confirms immediate start of Pryor turnaround, originally scheduled for July 2026, with no impact on duration or cost. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $530 million and $560 million | Revenue is guided between $530 million and $560 million for 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $500 million in FY26 | Revenue: $158.602M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $530 million and <= $560 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026158,602,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.23 → $0.88 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.23 | $645,392,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.26 | $647,114,540 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.26 | $647,114,540 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.71 | $628,294,184 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.72 | $631,045,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.71 | $619,061,210 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.74 | $631,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.76 | $633,295,907 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.75 | $638,236,726 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.75 | $638,236,726 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.75 | $638,236,726 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.77 | $640,636,726 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.77 | $640,636,726 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.77 | $640,636,726 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.77 | $640,636,726 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.88 | $652,437,654 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.88 | $652,437,654 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.