LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.30+0.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
LSB is improving profit with operating income up to $23.2 million. The company plans a turnaround at its Pryor facility. It expects free cash flow above $20 million in 2026. Revenue is guided between $530 million and $560 million for 2026.
The turnaround may face delays or cost overruns. Litigation risks could hurt profits. Revenue growth is weak, with analysts expecting only 1.2%. Profit could fall if the Pryor turnaround fails.
The price is about 19% below our fair value near $14. Analysts expect slow 1% revenue growth. Our view is cautious given the turnaround risks and recent selloff.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $15 million in FY26
Breaks if: operating income falls below $15 million next quarter
Breaks if: Turnaround delayed beyond 2026-Q3
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving operational performance. The current thesis state indicates challenges, particularly after a recent earnings miss and litigation issues.
The market seems to have priced in a premium compared to peers, suggesting that expectations are high. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may be cautious about future performance.
Fundamentals are expected to show volatility, especially with a near-term risk of missing earnings estimates. Management is focused on completing turnarounds and achieving earnings guidance, but recent results have been mixed.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute turnarounds effectively and the broader Materials sector's performance. Key factors include potential inflation reacceleration and the earnings performance of sector leaders.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. LXU's recent financial performance dropped from the robust to the weak half of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the reasons to own the stock. The next-quarter miss estimate is elevated at 56%, which supports this weaker outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $500 million in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, LXU's outlook will depend on operational improvements and external market conditions. Not investment advice.