LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.35-2.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LXU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LXU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, LSB Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release to report its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As previously announced, on July 30, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern time) / 9:00 a.m. (Central time), the Company will hold a conference call broadcast live over the Internet to discuss the financial resu…
Why it matters: Free cash flow rose to $74.2 million from $43.6 million in the same 2025 period. Holding that pace supports funding for projects and debt needs.
Supportive ifIn its next nine-month report, LSB posts free cash flow above $74.2 million.
Worry ifIn its next nine-month report, LSB posts free cash flow below $43.6 million.
Why it matters: Strong AN demand led LSB to shift output away from UAN. Steady AN volume would show that industrial demand supports this product mix.
Watch forQuarterly AN and nitric acid sales stay at or above 196,477 short tons, the Q3 2026 level.
Also watch forQuarterly AN and nitric acid sales fall below 196,477 short tons. The company cites weaker industrial demand.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $62.3 million, up from $40.1 million a year ago. A sharp drop would test whether stronger output and product mix can last.
Watch forQ4 adjusted EBITDA tops $40 million, the Q3 2025 level. Year-over-year growth is positive.
Also watch forQ4 adjusted EBITDA is below $40 million or falls year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $469 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,301 loss on $10,000 · 43.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.