LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.30+0.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LXU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LXU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, LSB Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release to report its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As previously announced, on July 30, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern time) / 9:00 a.m. (Central time), the Company will hold a conference call broadcast live over the Internet to discuss the financial resu…
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs. This is key for future profits.
Supportive ifOperating income will rise above $23.2 million next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays below $23.2 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show the materials sector is recovering.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Turnaround costs may affect Q3 earnings. This will show how well the company manages expenses.
Worry ifQ3 earnings show turnaround costs over $28 million. This is similar to Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report shows turnaround costs much lower than $28 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company maintains its positive momentum. A miss could raise concerns.
Watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows net income higher than $19.7 million.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows net income lower than $10 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $486 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,301 loss on $10,000 · 43.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the materials sector shows positive growth, it could benefit LSB Industries.
Supportive ifThe materials sector had revenue growth above 0% compared to last year.
Worry ifThe materials sector had revenue growth below 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The turnaround is crucial for improving production and financial performance. Delays could hurt results.
Worry ifManagement says the turnaround is on time and within budget.
Less concerning ifThere are more delays or cost overruns for the turnaround.
Why it matters: Nitrogen prices impact revenue. Keeping an eye on trends helps us see market conditions and sales.
Watch forNitrogen prices rise a lot, helping revenue in Q3.
Also watch forNitrogen prices fall or stay low, hurting revenue.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income means better cost control. It also shows improved operations.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from Q1 to Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The turnaround is key for making more products. Delays could hurt future output.
Watch forCompletion of the turnaround at the Pryor facility by the end of Q3 2026.
Also watch forFurther delays in the turnaround schedule beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Pricing trends will affect revenue and profits in the fertilizer segment. This is important for LSB.
Watch forUAN prices rise a lot due to strong demand and low supply.
Also watch forUAN prices fall because of too much supply or lower demand.
Why it matters: Finishing the Pryor turnaround is key to improving production and reliability. This could lead to better earnings in the second half of 2026.
Supportive ifThe Pryor turnaround is done on time. There are no more production problems.
Worry ifThe Pryor turnaround is late. It causes more production problems.
Why it matters: Approval is crucial for starting the carbon capture project. This could enhance LSB's low-carbon product offerings and earnings.
Supportive ifEPA grants Class VI permit approval for the El Dorado CCS project.
Worry ifThe EPA denies the Class VI permit. Approval is delayed more than expected.
Why it matters: A strong recovery in Q3 earnings shows better results after the changes.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is over $60 million. This shows recovery from the changes.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is under $50 million. This suggests problems are still happening.
Why it matters: Ammonia prices impact LSB's revenue. A shift in pricing could affect overall financial performance.
Watch forAmmonia prices go above $800 per ton. This shows strong demand in the market.
Also watch forAmmonia prices drop below $600 per ton, signaling weak demand.