Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
LSI Industries, Inc. (LYTS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.79-16.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.74 → 1.74 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LYTS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow target of $34.7 million | Free cash flow target is $34.7M by mid-2026. | Broken | FCF falls below $30M in 2026-06-30 | Free cash flow: $9.775M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $34.7M FCF by 2026-06-30. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Sep 3, 20269,775,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented lighting and display business, with a multi-year view that depends on sustained revenue growth and successful acquisition integration. The thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and near-term risk is elevated after a recent earnings miss.
The evidence describes LYTS as cheap versus peers, while also indicating that expectations sit below the valuation model’s view. The market appears to reflect weak execution quality, but not a wider combination of expensive valuation and business turbulence.
Recent performance has been strong: revenue rose 14% year over year in 2026-Q3, and free cash flow was positive excluding acquisition costs. Royston added sales, but integration and sustained cash generation remain works in progress; a recent earnings miss, CFO and CEO transitions, and a high-miss-rate industry add near-term uncertainty.
The key test is whether revenue growth continues and Royston integration supports the business without disrupting cash generation. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while easing interest rates or steadier results from the sector bellwether ALNT could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on turning recent growth and cash-flow progress into consistent execution, with leadership changes and near-term earnings risk still unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in LSI Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $150.5M revenue in 2026-Q3. |
| Intact |
| revenue falls below $147M in 2026-Q3 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Completion of Royston acquisition | The Royston acquisition adds strategic value. | Intact | Acquisition not completed or integration fails by 2026-Q2 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.66 → $1.74 · observed estimates
$0.95B → $0.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.66 | $953,586,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.76 | $955,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.74 | $952,786,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.74 | $952,783,333 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.