LSI Industries, Inc. (LYTS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.23+0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LYTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LYTS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-20
above. A copy of the presentation, which is available at www.lsicorp.com, related to this conference call is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. LSI’s presentation discloses certain financial results both in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and on a non-GAAP basis with adjustments for certain items. LSI’s management believes that presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures and their related reconciliations are…
Why it matters: Strong growth in this area shows ongoing demand. It also shows Royston is doing well.
Supportive ifDisplay Solutions organic growth exceeds 10% in Q3.
Worry ifDisplay Solutions organic growth falls below 5% in Q3.
Why it matters: This acquisition could improve LSI's market position. It may also help growth. Delays might show problems in operations.
Watch forThe Royston acquisition is now complete.
Also watch forFurther delays or lack of updates on the Royston acquisition.
Why it matters: A better EBITDA margin means lower costs and better operations. It shows business health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 10.5% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 9.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong order activity shows demand. It helps revenue growth in important areas.
Supportive ifOrder activity in grocery and fuel sectors is up more than 15% from last year.
Worry ifOrder activity in these verticals decreases or stays flat year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,741 loss on $10,000 · 27.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Integrating Royston is key for LSI's growth and market strength.
Supportive ifManagement says Royston integration is successful. Revenue should grow by Q4.
Worry ifIntegration problems may cause lower revenue from Royston in Q4.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a weakening trend in the sector. This could affect LSI's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its historical median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still higher than its usual level.
Why it matters: Strong order activity signals demand strength and supports revenue growth. It reflects market trends.
Supportive ifGrocery orders rise by over 20% year over year in Q4.
Worry ifGrocery orders drop or stay the same year over year in Q4.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for funding growth and operations. A decline could raise concerns about financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities exceeds $24.983M in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operating activities falls below $24.983M in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping positive free cash flow is important. It helps with financial health and growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow in Q3 is reported above $10 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q3 turns negative.
Why it matters: Growth in the Lighting segment shows recovery. It also shows demand is stable in key markets.
Supportive ifLighting segment net sales growth exceeds 5% in Q3.
Worry ifLighting segment net sales decline year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth shows LSI's ability to capture market demand. It indicates strong performance in key segments.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth in Lighting and Display Solutions exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth in Lighting and Display Solutions is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Display Solutions growth is key to LSI's overall performance. Strong growth signals effective integration of Royston.
Supportive ifDisplay Solutions revenue grows more than 20% year over year in Q1 2027.
Worry ifDisplay Solutions revenue growth is below 10% year over year in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is important for LSI's financial health. It shows good capital management after the acquisition.
Supportive ifLSI generates free cash flow of over $10 million in Q1 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow is negative or below $5 million in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The new CFO will shape LSI's financial strategy during a key growth phase. A smooth transition is crucial for stability.
Watch forLSI names a successor to CFO James E. Galeese before mid-2027.
Also watch forNo new leader is named by mid-2027. This creates uncertainty in financial leadership.