Mastercard (MA)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$655.92-2.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MA — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-02
Chief Business Officer — Sachin Mehra: Sachin Mehra is expanding his role to Chief Business Officer.
Why it matters: Payment-network revenue grew 11% in Q3, while rebates and incentives rose 18%. Further rebate growth may weigh on revenue gains.
Worry ifPayment-network revenue grows less than 10% year over year. Rebates and incentives grow faster than revenue.
Less concerning ifPayment-network revenue growth stays at or above 11%, and rebate growth slows to 11% or less.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue grew 14%, while adjusted costs rose 12%. If costs outpace revenue, recent margin gains may fade.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted operating expenses grow more than 14% year over year. That is faster than Q3 revenue growth.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted operating expense growth stays at or below 12%, while revenue grows at least 14%.
Why it matters: Cross-border volume growth eased from 13% in Q1 to 11% in Q3. A further drop would point to weaker travel-linked activity.
Worry ifQ4 cross-border volume growth falls below 11% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 cross-border volume growth reaches 12% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Services grew 19% in Q3 and helped lift revenue. A sharp slowdown would weaken this growth source.
Worry ifQ4 revenue from value-added services and solutions grows less than 15% year over year. Or its growth rate falls again from Q3’s 19%.
Less concerning ifQ4 value-added services and solutions revenue grows 19% or more year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $209 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,848 loss on $10,000 · 18.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.