Mastercard (MA)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$579.21-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS grows at least 20% YoY: EPS +20.0% YoY vs 20% target.
Mastercard grows revenue about 16% yearly. EPS rose 21% last year. New payment tech and stablecoin plans help growth. Legal risks eased by recent settlement.
EU rules and Cuba block could hurt growth. Stablecoin competition is rising. Guidance is soft, showing some pressure.
Price is about 12% above our fair value near $469. Analysts expect about 15% revenue growth. Our fair value is below Street median, so weigh Street views.
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 10% next year
Sustain earnings per share growth through operational efficiency and revenue expansion.
Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $3.53 in 2024-Q3 to $4.97 in 2026-Q2, reflecting sustained double-digit growth. Management's repeated emphasis on EPS growth aligns with the consistent financial improvement observed.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance that remains strong relative to its industry.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. The market seems to have a justified expectation of continued performance, but there is a slight gap in expectations.
Management is on track with priorities to increase net revenue and maintain earnings per share (EPS) growth, both of which have shown consistent improvement. However, there is a mixed status regarding the expansion of stablecoin solutions, which may affect future growth potential.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like V, AXP, and COF. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could support MA's momentum. Conversely, any misses or lowered guidance from these peers could negatively impact MA.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the view of increased net revenue. Mastercard's expansion of stablecoin solutions also reinforces this positive outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Diluted EPS of $4.97, up 22% year-over-year, or 19% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Diluted EPS of $4.35, up 21% year-over-year, or 18% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Diluted EPS of $4.52, up 24% year-over-year, or 20% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Diluted EPS of $4.34, up 23% year-over-year, or 20% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Diluted EPS of $4.07, up 16% year-over-year, or 15% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Diluted EPS of $3.59, up 11% year-over-year, or 15% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Diluted EPS of $3.64, up 23% year-over-year, or 25% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Diluted EPS of $3.53, up 15% year-over-year.”
Breaks if: New major legal or regulatory actions hurt business
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year
Continue driving net revenue growth through payment network expansion and value-added services.
Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Net revenue grew from $7.4 billion in 2024-Q3 to $9.3 billion in 2026-Q2, reflecting consistent double-digit currency-neutral growth. Management has consistently emphasized net revenue growth, and the financial results show delivering on this priority.
“Net revenue growth at 14% year-over-year, or 12% on a currency-neutral basis in the second quarter.”
“Net revenue increased 16%, or 12% on a currency-neutral basis versus the comparable period in 2025.”
“Net revenue increased 18%, or 15% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Net revenue increased 17%, or 15% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Net revenue increased 17%, or 16% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Net revenue increased 14%, or 17% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Net revenue increased 14%, or 16% on a currency-neutral basis.”
“Net revenue increased 13%, or 14% on a currency-neutral basis.”
Breaks if: Stablecoin and AI payment expansion stalls or reverses
Overall, the outlook for MA remains stable in the near term, but attention should be paid to sector developments. Not investment advice.