Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mastercard (MA)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$672.68+3.94%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
23.09 → 23.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 26 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 25 to 26; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows at least 20% YoY | A primary condition in Mastercard's published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY. | Under Pressure | EPS growth falls below 10% next year | Diluted EPS growth: 21.66% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 202621.658986 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large payment-network and services business with a durable-premium profile, rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, but the latest signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after an earnings miss.
The shares are expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a modest expectations gap in the evidence. The priced-in assessment calls that premium justified, while fragility is low because the evidence does not show a broad stack of execution, valuation, and market-regime pressures.
Near term, a recent earnings miss and a run of misses raise an execution concern, even though the stated miss risk is low. Across the multi-year view, revenue growth and expansion in value-added services support the thesis, while management’s capital-return record is mixed.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support momentum. Rate cuts are another near-term risk for the sector; the multi-year case also depends on continued growth in network revenue and services.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business growth case remains intact, but the expensive valuation leaves little room for sustained execution weakness. The next guidance update and continued services growth are important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Legal risks eased by recent settlement. |
| Under Pressure |
| New major legal or regulatory actions hurt business |
Qualitative: Potential £5bn UK lawsuit Strong Q3 earnings and revenue growth offset by a new potential £5bn UK lawsuit regarding interchange fees. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net revenue grows at least 16% YoY | A primary condition in Mastercard's published investment case. The stated target is >=16% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand stablecoin solutions and AI payment networks | New payment tech and stablecoin plans help growth. | Intact | Stablecoin and AI payment expansion stalls or reverses | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.80 → $23.16 · observed estimates
$41.77B → $42.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.80 | $41,765,729,830 | 38 / 37 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.80 | $41,756,520,850 | 38 / 37 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.80 | $41,756,520,850 | 38 / 37 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.80 | $41,749,304,640 | 38 / 37 |
| 2026-07-28 | $22.81 | $41,779,270,287 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-29 | $22.80 | $41,748,926,260 | 38 / 37 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.80 | $41,748,926,260 | 38 / 37 |
| 2026-07-31 | $22.84 | $41,799,987,750 | 39 / 36 |
| 2026-08-01 | $22.91 | $41,863,125,927 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.96 | $41,902,315,610 | 39 / 36 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.96 | $41,902,315,610 | 39 / 36 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.96 | $41,902,315,610 | 39 / 36 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-07 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-08 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-09 | $23.00 | $41,943,316,510 | 39 / 36 |
| 2026-08-10 | $23.00 | $41,943,316,510 | 39 / 36 |
| 2026-08-12 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.01 | $41,954,705,400 | 38 / 36 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.99 | $41,926,113,462 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-08-20 | $23.09 | $41,969,051,846 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-21 | $23.09 | $41,968,247,730 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-22 | $23.09 | $41,968,247,219 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-23 | $23.09 | $41,968,247,219 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-24 | $23.09 | $41,968,247,219 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-25 | $23.09 | $41,968,247,219 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-26 | $23.09 | $41,968,247,220 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-27 | $23.09 | $41,968,247,220 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-28 | $23.09 | $41,969,139,434 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-29 | $23.09 | $41,969,139,434 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-30 | $23.09 | $41,969,139,434 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-31 | $23.09 | $41,969,139,434 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-01 | $23.09 | $41,969,139,434 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-02 | $23.09 | $41,969,139,434 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-03 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-04 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-05 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-06 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-07 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-08 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-09 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-10 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-11 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-12 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-13 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-14 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-15 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-16 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-17 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-18 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-19 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-20 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-21 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-22 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-23 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-24 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-25 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-26 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-27 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-28 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-29 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-30 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-01 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-02 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-03 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-04 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-05 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-06 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-07 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-08 | $23.09 | $41,962,234,359 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-09 | $23.09 | $41,963,200,071 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-10 | $23.10 | $41,964,897,804 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-11 | $23.10 | $41,964,897,804 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-12 | $23.10 | $41,964,897,804 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.09 | $41,964,897,804 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-10-14 | $23.10 | $41,970,766,929 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.10 | $41,970,766,929 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.11 | $41,962,824,211 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.11 | $41,962,824,211 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.11 | $41,964,741,408 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.11 | $41,964,741,408 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.11 | $41,970,821,233 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.11 | $41,970,821,233 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.10 | $41,972,846,050 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.10 | $41,972,846,050 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.11 | $41,974,412,176 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.11 | $41,976,328,843 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.11 | $41,976,328,843 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.11 | $41,976,328,843 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.11 | $41,976,321,071 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.11 | $41,976,321,071 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.13 | $42,006,715,323 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.16 | $42,054,032,387 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.16 | $42,054,032,387 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.16 | $42,054,032,387 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.16 | $42,047,386,471 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.16 | $42,047,386,471 | 26 / 27 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 36 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 15 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.