Mastercard (MA)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$579.21-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MA
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $579 the market pays 31× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 31× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $553 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $554–$740. Note: our $553 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($554–$740). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $670 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $665.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $724.90 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $578.44 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $206.06 | 11.1 | 18.63 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$554.00 – $740.00 (median $665.00) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-08-31
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $244.35 |
| 11.1 |
| 22.04 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $114.34 | 2.9 | 39.73 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $525.36 | 28.0 | 18.78 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $76.28 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $573.85 | 30.6 | 18.78 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $237.45 | 12.4 | 19.14 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $313.39 | 11.1 | 28.33 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $323.85 | 11.1 | 29.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $173.52 | 2.9 | 60.30 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $817.18 | 28.0 | 29.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $892.60 | 30.6 | 29.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $414.46 | 11.1 | 37.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $425.06 | 11.1 | 38.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $227.74 | 2.9 | 79.14 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $1072.56 | 28.0 | 38.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1171.54 | 30.6 | 38.34 | Analyst | medium |