Mastercard (MA)
NYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$531.78-0.25%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $531.78. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $532 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 33× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $473 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $561–$735. Note: our $473 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($561–$735). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $616 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$561.00 – $735.00 (median $640.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $640.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $691.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $698.01 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $55.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $202.72 | 16.5 | 12.25 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $269.90 | 13.6 | 19.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $296.05 | 16.5 | 17.89 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $128.25 | 3.4 | 38.01 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $515.00 | 28.8 | 17.89 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $74.28 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $584.98 | 32.7 | 17.89 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $302.41 | 16.5 | 18.27 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $330.77 | 16.5 | 19.99 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $410.48 | 13.6 | 30.17 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $470.25 | 16.5 | 28.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $196.66 | 3.4 | 58.28 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $818.04 | 28.8 | 28.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $929.19 | 32.7 | 28.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $458.45 | 16.5 | 27.70 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $542.86 | 13.6 | 39.90 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $621.55 | 16.5 | 37.56 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $259.94 | 3.4 | 77.03 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1081.23 | 28.8 | 37.56 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1228.14 | 32.7 | 37.56 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.