Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-07-07
$141.66+0.63%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $141.66. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $142 MAA trades at 16× p/ffo, in line with its 16× p/ffo peer median — but our blended $108 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $120–$155. Note: our $108 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($120–$155). Not investment advice.
$120.00 – $155.00 (median $137.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-25
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $137.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $56.56 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $17.85 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $63.79 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $70.22 | 16.2 | 4.34 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $112.36 | 21.5 | 5.23 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $141.66 | 16.2 | 8.76 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $150.49 | 7.9 | 18.96 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $46.85 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $133.00 | 35.8 | 3.71 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $60.11 | 16.2 | 3.72 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $50.85 | 16.2 | 3.14 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $89.76 | 21.5 | 4.17 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $119.53 | 16.2 | 7.39 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $157.81 | 7.9 | 19.88 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $156.57 | 35.8 | 4.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $41.01 | 16.2 | 2.53 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $77.28 | 21.5 | 3.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $106.73 | 16.2 | 6.60 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $159.08 | 7.9 | 20.04 | guidance | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $157.82 | 35.8 | 4.40 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.