Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$128.32-0.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
MAA owns apartments in growing US regions. It guides Core FFO per share near $8.69 in 2026. Profit margins remain very high near 95.6%. The company has low risk and stable management.
MAA trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 38.18, well above peers at 16.18. Revenue growth is slow, near 0.4% guided for 2025. Guidance is soft, showing some uncertainty in execution.
The market prices MAA about 31% above our fair value near $108. Analysts expect about 3% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, reflecting skepticism on valuation.
Breaks if: Core FFO per share falls below $8.0 in FY26
Breaks if: Core FFO per share Q2 falls below $2.00
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 93% in FY25
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable real estate play with a focus on earnings growth and disciplined capital allocation. However, the current thesis state is weakened, reflecting recent declines in company momentum and performance relative to peers.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, indicating some fragility in expectations. There is a notable gap in expectations, suggesting that the current valuation may not fully reflect the recent challenges faced by MAA.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, as management continues to emphasize earnings growth and maintain guidance. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although the industry has a history of higher miss rates.
The future performance of MAA hinges on several factors, including potential guidance cuts, movements in interest rates by the Fed, and the performance of sector peers. Positive developments in these areas could provide a tailwind for MAA.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. MAA narrowed its full-year 2026 guidance, lowering expected Core FFO. Analysts now expect MAA's diluted EPS to decline 2.6% year-over-year. The company has underperformed the S&P 500 and the Residential REIT ETF over the past year.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below -0.3% in FY25
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MAA's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and maintain earnings momentum. Not investment advice.