Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$128.32-0.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operati ons and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (“MAA”) issued a press release announcing its consolidated results of operations and financial condition as of June 30, 2026 and for the three and six months then ended (the “Press Release”). Copies of the Press Release and supplemental data schedules are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report. The information in this Current Report under this Ite…
Why it matters: Successful leases and new buildings can increase future income and property value.
Supportive ifTwo lease-up projects stabilize in Q2 2026 as planned.
Worry ifLease-up projects fail to stabilize as expected in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
Watch forSector revenue growth shows a year-over-year increase of more than 2%.
Also watch forSector revenue growth declines year-over-year by more than 2%.
Why it matters: Blended rent growth indicates demand and pricing power in MAA's markets. It impacts revenue.
Supportive ifBlended rent growth exceeds 0% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifBlended rent growth is negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on Core FFO guidance show how well MAA manages costs and pricing. This affects earnings growth and dividends.
Supportive ifCore FFO guidance for 2026 is raised above $8.53 per share.
Worry ifCore FFO guidance is lowered below $8.53 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $194 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,520 loss on $10,000 · 15.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a positive change in the real estate sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 7% year over year in upcoming reports.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 7% year over year.
Why it matters: A low turnover rate means residents stay longer. This helps keep revenue steady.
Supportive ifResident turnover rate remains below 39.9% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifResident turnover rate rises above 40.5% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New lease pricing growth shows how well MAA can attract new residents. It affects revenue.
Supportive ifNew lease pricing growth exceeds 5% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNew lease pricing growth is below 0% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company keeps its good performance after the last report.
Watch forQ2 earnings beat expectations. This shows strong performance in operations.
Also watch forQ2 earnings miss expectations. This may mean there are problems in operations.
Why it matters: A drop in Core FFO could show trouble keeping earnings guidance and investor trust.
Worry ifCore FFO per share reported below $2.08 for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCore FFO per share reported above $2.08 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Successful lease-ups show demand strength and support earnings growth. They also affect occupancy rates.
Supportive ifAt least two lease-up projects reach 90% occupancy by Q3 2026.
Worry ifLess than two lease-up projects reach 90% occupancy by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This project helps MAA grow its development pipeline. Finishing it would boost future earnings.
Supportive ifThe Kansas City project is done. It reaches at least 90% occupancy in three months.
Worry ifThe Kansas City project has delays. It does not reach 90% occupancy in three months.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can raise MAA's borrowing costs and affect its finances.
Watch forFOMC decision leads to stable or lower interest rates.
Also watch forThe FOMC decision leads to higher interest rates that affect MAA's financing.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal a potential slowdown in MAA's earnings growth trajectory.
Worry ifQ3 Same Store NOI growth reported below 3.0%.
Less concerning ifSame Store NOI growth remains at or above 3.0%.
Why it matters: This project is part of MAA's strategy to expand its development pipeline and boost NOI.
Supportive ifThe Kansas City community is done. It will have at least 90% occupancy by Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe Kansas City community will not be finished by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Blended lease rate growth above this threshold would suggest improving pricing power and demand.
Supportive ifBlended lease rate growth reported above 1.0% for Q3.
Worry ifBlended lease rate growth falls below 0.5% for Q3.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show good use of money. They also show trust in future profits.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $150 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million by the end of 2026.