Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Magnera Corp. (MAGN)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.11-4.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.34 → 1.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MAGN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain free cash flow between $90M and $110M in FY26 | Magnera aims to meet its 2026 free cash flow target of $90-$110 million. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $90 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-28M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=90 million USD and <=110 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-28,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical, cost-improvement story in a sector with a supportive backdrop. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from cautious to mixed, but confidence is medium and the risks remain elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure places MAGN cheap versus peers, while another shows a 17% premium, and model confidence is low. The overall expectations label is justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not point to a clear expectations gap.
Near term, recent results are strong relative to the industry, and second-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 9% year over year as cost savings and synergies took effect. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance at the lower end for adjusted EBITDA, while free cash flow fell from the first quarter; a recent earnings miss and erratic surprises keep execution risk elevated.
The multi-year thesis depends on management delivering its 2026 earnings and cash flow guidance and sustaining cost savings. A guidance increase next quarter would signal a turnaround from the August reduction, while weaker jobs data could raise recession concerns; continued strength from sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MAGN’s case rests on continued cost improvements and reliable cash generation, with recent performance supportive but earnings and cash flow still uneven. The thesis is intact, though the evidence remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Magnera Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is adjusted EBITDA > 0. |
| Intact |
| adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 7% annually | A primary condition in Magnera Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.34 → $1.34 · observed estimates
$3.58B → $3.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.34 | $3,580,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.