Magnera Corp. (MAGN)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.66+6.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAGN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, the Company reported its results of operations for the quarter ended June 27, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Q3 volume rose 1% after a 2% drop in Q2. More growth would support the recent recovery; another drop would raise concern about demand.
Watch forOrganic volume grows year over year again, following the 1% increase in the June quarter.
Also watch forOrganic volume turns negative year over year, after the June quarter's 1% increase.
Why it matters: Magnera kept its cash flow goal, but free cash flow fell from $73M in Q1 to $32M in Q2. Q4 cash flow is a key test.
Worry ifQ4 free cash flow below $18M would leave full-year free cash flow under $90M, based on $72M through Q3.
Less concerning ifQ4 free cash flow of at least $18M would bring full-year free cash flow to at least $90M.
Why it matters: A positive spread helped lift Q3 adjusted EBITDA by 9%. A reversal could weaken the gains from cost cuts and merger savings.
Worry ifThe next results show a negative price-cost spread, after the reported $11M gain in the June quarter.
Less concerning ifThe next results show a positive price-cost spread and adjusted EBITDA growth year over year.
Why it matters: The report can show whether Magnera met its cash and earnings goals. It can also confirm if the latest volume gains lasted.
Watch forThe November 4 report shows full-year EBITDA of at least $380M and free cash flow of at least $90M.
Also watch forThe November 4 report shows full-year EBITDA below $380M or free cash flow below $90M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $500 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,174 loss on $10,000 · 41.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.