Magnera Corp. (MAGN)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.54+1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -83.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAGN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, the Company reported its results of operations for the quarter ended June 27, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Higher costs for raw materials can reduce profit margins and total earnings.
Worry ifRaw material costs increase by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRaw material costs stabilize or decrease in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A slowdown in organic volume growth may show weaker demand for Magnera's products.
Worry ifOrganic volume growth reported below 1% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOrganic volume growth reported above 1% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends affect Magnera's performance. A rebound could signal a better environment for sales.
Watch forConsumer Staples revenue growth speeds up to 4% or more.
Also watch forConsumer Staples revenue growth slows down to below 4%.
Why it matters: If cost savings are clear, it helps management's plan and could boost profits. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth from cost savings was reported in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth did not show improvement from cost savings in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable or better sales would show recovery from recent drops.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales reported at or above $796 million.
Worry ifQ2 net sales reported below $796 million.
Why it matters: A rise in net income shows the company is getting closer to making money and working better.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less negative than -$18 million in Q2.
Worry ifNet income is -$18 million or worse. This shows the company is still facing problems.
Why it matters: If revenue growth increases, it shows better market conditions. This also means better company performance.
Watch forRevenue growth turns positive year over year in Q2.
Also watch forRevenue growth is still negative compared to last year. This confirms ongoing market issues.
Why it matters: Better net income shows good cost control and operational gains.
Supportive ifNet income reported closer to zero or positive.
Worry ifNet income is worse than -$18 million.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for debt reduction. A drop below $30 million raises concerns.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow was over $30 million. This supports management's guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 free cash flow was under $30 million. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A rise above $99 million would support management's guidance and show growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was over $99 million. This shows growth and good operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $99 million. This shows some issues with operations.
Why it matters: Paying off debt helps with financial stability. It also builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifDebt repayments over $36 million were announced for Q3.
Worry ifNo big debt repayments were announced in Q3. This raises worries about financial control.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $566 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,174 loss on $10,000 · 41.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.