Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ManpowerGroup (MAN)
NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.27-1.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.88 → 4.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MAN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain stable dividend payout at $0.72 per share | The company keeps paying a stable dividend of $0.72 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.70 | Dividend per share: $0.72 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.72 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. May 8, 20260.72 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MAN is a high-risk business recovery and execution story, not a steady compounder today, because earnings quality is loss-making despite strong recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is intact, but company momentum has weakened sharply and management execution remains mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes MAN as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 61% peer premium and an expectations gap of -0.34. Overall, the snapshot labels value as expensive and priced-in conditions as justified, with low fragility; this suggests the market is not signaling extreme fragility, but the valuation still leaves room for disappointment if execution weakens.
Near term, revenue and cost trends show progress: third-quarter revenue rose year over year, and SG&A declined, while management remains on track with its cost-saving effort. However, delivery toward the full 2028 savings target is not quantified, AI progress lacks measurable evidence, and the company has a history of misses despite a low current miss-risk estimate. The CEO transition and appointment add an execution watch point, while the broader sector is a headwind.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue and market-share gains, delivery of the stated cost savings, and clearer evidence that technology initiatives contribute to results. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the industry backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MAN’s strong recent operating performance and improving costs support an intact thesis, but loss-making earnings quality, high risk, and mixed execution make progress important to verify. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit rose to $723M in Q1 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| Gross profit falls below $700M per quarter |
Gross profit: $767.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$723M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026767,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operating income above $28M per quarter | Earnings per share are expected near $0.96 next quarter. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $25M per quarter | Operating income: $82.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > $28M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 202682,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 10% YoY | A primary condition in ManpowerGroup's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year | Revenue growth: 4.44% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20264.436389 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.85 → $4.64 · observed estimates
$19.87B → $19.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.85 | $19,866,105,340 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.88 | $19,866,077,787 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.88 | $19,866,082,776 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.86 | $19,852,638,332 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.86 | $19,852,638,332 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.86 | $19,852,638,332 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.86 | $19,835,852,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.86 | $19,835,847,298 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.72 | $19,768,555,413 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.72 | $19,768,555,413 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.69 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.69 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.69 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.69 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.68 | $19,796,599,858 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.64 | $19,756,266,524 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.64 | $19,756,266,524 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.