MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04

$5.88-14.41%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MARA Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MARA yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Grow energized hashrate 25-33% YoY to support mining revenue	Bitcoin mining power rose 33% year over year to 72.2 EH/s in Q1 2026.	Intact	energized hashrate falls below 60 EH/s next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “SHAREHOLDER LETTER Q2 2026 8 Bitcoin Mining Today, Bitcoin mining represents the core of MARA's business.” “We remain committed to continuously improving the efficiency of our mining operations through disciplined fleet modernization and intelligent power management.”

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.96

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Grow energized hashrate 25-33% YoY to support mining revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Advance AI and HPC infrastructure with Starwood partnershipDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Add 505 MW power capacity and $144M annual EBITDA from Long RidgeDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce convertible debt and maintain capital disciplineDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MARA Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making infrastructure and Bitcoin-mining business with an emerging AI data-center growth plan. The multi-year view is in a watch state: mining operations have improved, but financial performance is weak and management execution remains mixed.

What's priced into MARA Holdings, Inc.

MARA is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence tags pricing as justified and finds low fragility, so the apparent peer discount does not establish that expectations are undemanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings misses and erratic results leave a 42% estimated chance of another miss, while company momentum has improved from a more negative level. Over the multi-year thesis, mining scale and efficiency have improved, and acquisitions and the Starwood partnership are advancing, but AI infrastructure plans still need leases and continued execution.

What MARA Holdings, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut at the next call would deepen the concern around repeated misses. The favorable case depends on progress toward AI infrastructure leases and on continued mining improvements; easier interest rates or stabilization in the broader Tech sector could also help the backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, MARA’s thesis depends on whether its AI infrastructure expansion can become a meaningful complement to mining while earnings execution improves. The opportunity is paired with high risk, weak recent performance, and mixed progress on strategic priorities. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-07-27	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-07-29	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-07-30	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-07-31	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-01	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-02	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-03	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-04	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-05	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-06	$-0.68	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-07	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-08	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-09	$-0.68	$864,133,580	1 / 8
2026-08-10	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-12	$-0.21	$781,878,580	1 / 8
2026-08-13	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-15	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-16	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-17	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-18	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-19	$-0.98	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-20	$-0.85	$925,652,822	3 / 6
2026-08-21	$-0.85	$925,652,822	4 / 6
2026-08-22	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-23	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-24	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-25	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-26	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-27	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-28	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-29	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-30	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-31	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-09-01	$-0.74	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-09-02	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-03	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-04	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-05	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-06	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-07	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-08	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-09	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-10	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-11	$-0.82	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-12	$-0.87	$961,998,976	4 / 6
2026-09-13	$-0.87	$961,998,976	3 / 6
2026-09-14	$-0.87	$961,998,976	3 / 6
2026-09-15	$-0.92	$948,713,335	3 / 6
2026-09-16	$-0.92	$948,713,335	3 / 6
2026-09-17	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 6
2026-09-18	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 6
2026-09-19	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 6
2026-09-20	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-21	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-22	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-23	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-24	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-25	$-0.92	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-26	$-1.02	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-09-27	$-1.02	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-09-28	$-1.02	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-09-29	$-1.02	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-09-30	$-1.02	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-10-01	$-1.02	$948,299,486	4 / 7
2026-10-02	$-1.02	$948,299,486	4 / 7
2026-10-03	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-04	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-05	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-06	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-07	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-08	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-09	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-10	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-11	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-12	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-13	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-14	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-15	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-16	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-17	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-18	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-19	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-20	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-21	$-1.02	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-22	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-23	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-24	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-25	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-26	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-27	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-28	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-29	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-30	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-31	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-11-01	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-11-02	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-11-03	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-11-04	$-0.96	$962,014,819	4 / 7

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	8	5	1
2026-07-01	8	5	1
2026-08-01	8	4	1
2026-09-01	10	4	2
2026-10-01	9	4	2
2026-11-01	9	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded

MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)

What could strengthen or challenge MARA Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Historical risk context

MARA Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into MARA Holdings, Inc.

What the fundamentals likely do

What MARA Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Next proof point

Bottom line