MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.87-4.05%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MARA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 16.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MARA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 6, 2026, MARA Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a shareholder letter announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. The Company also issued a press release announcing its earnings webcast and conference call to be held on August 6, 2026. The full text of the shareholder letter and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. T…
Why it matters: A signed lease would show that MARA can turn its powered sites into customer revenue. Management set a year-end goal for at least one lease.
Supportive ifMARA announces at least one signed lease for an AI or HPC site by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifNo AI or HPC lease is signed by December 31, 2026, or management drops that goal.
Why it matters: Approval would clear a key step in a deal management says can add cash flow and expand its data center plans.
Supportive ifFERC approves the Long Ridge deal, and MARA reports that the acquisition has closed.
Worry ifFERC denies approval, or MARA reports that the deal is delayed or ended.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 27% from a year earlier, while energized hashrate rose 22%. Q3 results can show whether more mining power lifts revenue.
Watch forQ3 revenue is higher than Q2 2026 revenue of $174.9 million and the year-over-year revenue drop is smaller than 27%.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $174.9 million, or its year-over-year decline is 27% or worse.
Why it matters: MARA held 35,577 BTC at quarter-end, down 29% from a year earlier. Another large drop could add pressure while results remain loss-making.
Worry ifMARA says it held less than 35,577 BTC at the next quarter-end. It reports no change in how it counts loaned or pledged coins.
Less concerning ifMARA reports holdings at or above 35,577 BTC at the next quarter-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$406 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $810 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,246 loss on $10,000 · 62.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.