MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.31-2.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MARA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MARA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 6, 2026, MARA Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a shareholder letter announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. The Company also issued a press release announcing its earnings webcast and conference call to be held on August 6, 2026. The full text of the shareholder letter and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. T…
Why it matters: Signing tenants will validate MARA's strategy and drive revenue. It shows demand for their infrastructure.
Supportive ifOne or more tenant leases are signed by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo leases are signed by year-end, indicating weak demand.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will show if MARA's strategies are working and if there is market demand.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue increases year over year compared to Q2 2025.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue decreases year over year.
Why it matters: Progress in the Starwood partnership may improve MARA's infrastructure and cash flow.
Supportive ifThere is good progress in permitting and site preparations.
Worry ifNo updates on the partnership are reported. This may mean operational problems.
Why it matters: Getting leases with high-performance computing tenants would support MARA's plan. It would also increase cash flow.
Supportive ifAt least one lease signed with a high-performance computing tenant by year-end.
Worry ifNo leases were signed with HPC tenants by year-end. This shows possible challenges in getting tenants.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$382 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $810 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,053 loss on $10,000 · 70.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Regulatory approvals are needed to complete the Long Ridge deal. Delays could hurt MARA's growth.
Worry ifRegulatory approvals happen on time. There are no problems.
Less concerning ifRegulatory approvals are late or denied. This changes the deal timeline.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means MARA is more efficient and financially healthier.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in future quarters.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for growth. It shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations improves from -$247.5M in Q1 2026 to less negative in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations declines further in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Successful execution of this acquisition could strengthen MARA's market position. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifCompletion of the acquisition by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe deal is delayed or canceled. This affects growth plans.
Why it matters: Better income is important for MARA's finances. It shows how well management is doing.
Supportive ifOperating income improves from -$1,061.5M in Q1 2026 to less negative in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or stays the same in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on this partnership will show how MARA is building its digital infrastructure. It will also show how MARA is attracting tenants.
Supportive ifMARA gives a good update on tenant talks or project progress with Starwood.
Worry ifMARA reports delays or setbacks in the partnership's progress.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition will enhance MARA's power capacity and cash flow. It supports their growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe deal will close. It will get regulatory approvals by Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe deal does not close. This is due to regulatory or financial problems.
Why it matters: Approval would show that MARA plans to grow its power capacity. This will help cash flow.
Supportive ifFERC approved the Long Ridge deal. This allows for quick improvements in operations.
Worry ifFERC does not approve or takes longer to decide than expected.
Why it matters: Getting leases would support MARA's plan to turn its power portfolio into AI tools.
Supportive ifAt least one lease agreement signed with a major hyperscaler by December 2026.
Worry ifNo lease agreements signed by year-end, even with talks ongoing.
Why it matters: Improvements would show that MARA can keep cash flow steady during market issues.
Supportive ifEnergized hashrate rises by over 10% from one quarter to the next.
Worry ifEnergized hashrate falls or stays the same from one quarter to the next.