Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.36+2.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.25 → 1.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MATV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce leverage and strengthen balance sheet | A primary condition in Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is generate significant cash flow to reduce leverage. | Under Pressure | Leverage increases or cash flow weakens materially | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MATV is an operational-improvement story with a sector tailwind, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but earnings quality remains loss-making and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation signal is mixed: MATV is marked cheap versus peers, while its measured premium versus peers is 0.62. The expectations gap is negative at -0.43, and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clearly stretched setup. The valuation score recently fell by 10.4 points, though the snapshot does not explain why.
Near term, the latest results show operational progress: adjusted EBITDA margin rose from 9.9% in the first quarter of 2026 to 14.1% in the second, while operating cash flow increased 18% year over year. Net debt also declined, but remained substantial, and segment growth was modest and mixed. A guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk, while the near-term miss risk is assessed as low.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on whether manufacturing and supply chain improvements keep lifting margins and cash flow, and whether that cash flow continues to reduce leverage. Pricing actions need to support growth despite volume and mix challenges. The sector tailwind depends partly on whether bellwethers LIN, ECL, and SHW continue to report strong results and guidance.
The one-to-three-year view is intact but conditional: recent operating progress is encouraging, while losses, substantial debt, and sensitivity to guidance and sector conditions keep risk elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Total debt was $976.4 million as of September 30, 2026, an improvement of $52.5 million year-over-year.” “Total debt was $974.5 million as of June 30, 2026 and Cash and cash equivalents was $66.3 million resulting in net debt of $908.2 million.”
Achieve commercial excellence through pricing | A supporting condition in Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is maintain pricing discipline and build sales pipeline. | Intact | Pricing actions fail or sales pipeline weakens | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA (see non-GAAP reconciliations) of $39.6 million increased 20.4% while Adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.1% increased 150 basis points versus prior year.” “Adjusted EBITDA (see non-GAAP reconciliations) and margin increased 18.8% and 210 basis points, respectively, compared to the prior year period, as proactive pricing actions offset general cost increases including higher manufacturing and distribution costs and SG&A expenses.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
EPS at or above $0.70 in FY26 | A primary condition in Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.70 USD_PER_SHARE. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $0.39 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.03 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.70 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026-0.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operational efficiency improvements | A primary condition in Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is sustain progress on operational improvements. | Improving | Operational efficiency deteriorates or progress stalls | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.25 → $1.25 · observed estimates
$2.08B → $2.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.25 | $2,075,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.25 | $2,088,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.