Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.36+2.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MATV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MATV — divestiture
Dated 2026-05-06
of this Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. SOURCE: Mativ Holdings, In…
Why it matters: SAS sales rose 2.8% in Q2, but lower volume and mix offset gains in Tapes, Labels & Liners. Broader growth would strengthen the result.
Supportive ifQ3 SAS sales grow from a year ago. Management says volume and mix are no longer lower in other categories.
Worry ifQ3 SAS sales fall from a year ago, or volume and mix stay lower in categories beyond Tapes, Labels & Liners.
Why it matters: FAM sales fell 1.3% in Q2, with lower volume and mix. Growth would ease that pressure.
Supportive ifQ3 FAM sales rise year over year, and management reports higher volume or mix.
Worry ifQ3 FAM sales fall year over year, with lower volume or mix still weighing on results.
Why it matters: Net debt fell to $908.2 million in Q2. Further cuts would show that strong cash flow is helping reduce debt.
Supportive ifQ3 net debt is below $908.2 million, the June 30, 2026 level.
Worry ifQ3 net debt is at or above $908.2 million.
Why it matters: The Q3 report is the next clear test of sales, margins, and debt progress. The Q2 results showed stronger cash flow and lower net debt.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $75 million, sales rise year over year, and net debt is below $908.2 million.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $75 million, sales fall year over year, or net debt is at or above $908.2 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,094 loss on $10,000 · 50.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA reached $75 million, up 12% year over year. A similar result would show that cost gains are holding.
Supportive ifIn the November 4 Q3 results, adjusted EBITDA is at least $75 million. Year-over-year growth stays positive.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA falls below $75 million or declines from a year ago.
Why it matters: The sector signal says materials revenue has been shrinking, near 1% below zero over three years. Positive growth would mark a change in that trend.
Supportive ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth turns positive in the reported sector data.
Worry ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth remains below zero or falls further below zero.