Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Matson, Inc. (MATX)
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$213.87+1.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.81 → 16.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MATX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure between $150 million and $170 million in 2026 | The company plans to spend $150-$170 million on capital projects in 2026. | Intact | capex guidance falls outside $150M-$170M range in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $237.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $150M to $170M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026237,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MATX is a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining operating income and returning capital to shareholders. The current thesis state is intact, despite a recent drop in confidence from high to medium.
The market currently prices MATX as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be fully accounting for the potential risks and rewards associated with its recent performance.
Management is on track to maintain or modestly exceed 2025 operating income levels, although capital expenditure discipline shows mixed results. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the company has a history of erratic earnings surprises.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like KEX and SMHI. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable tailwind for MATX, while any misses could negatively impact its momentum.
Overall, MATX is navigating a challenging sector backdrop with a focus on operational stability and shareholder returns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividend per share rose to $0.36 in Q1 2026, showing strong capital returns. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.36 next year |
Dividend per share: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.36 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 20260.38 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating income near Q1 2026 level of $61.4 million | A primary condition in Matson, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $61.4 million. | Intact | operating income falls below $61.4 million next year | Operating income: $255.2M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $61.4 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 2026255,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 5% per year | A primary condition in Matson, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 5% YoY. | Improving | revenue growth falls below 5% next year | Revenue growth: 26.52% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 5% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 5, 202626.519714 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.43 → $16.81 · observed estimates
$3.65B → $3.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.43 | $3,643,680,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.43 | $3,643,680,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.43 | $3,645,780,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.21 | $3,703,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.21 | $3,703,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.67 | $3,765,179,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.67 | $3,765,179,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.67 | $3,765,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.70 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.83 | $3,765,194,766 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.57 | $3,718,129,844 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.57 | $3,718,129,844 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.81 | $3,740,796,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.81 | $3,740,896,511 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $16.81 | $3,740,766,667 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.