Matson, Inc. (MATX)
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$211.44-4.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MATX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
MATX — President transition
Dated 2026-03-12
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer — John P. Lauer: John P. Lauer is retiring from the Company on July 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Higher fuel prices have affected all markets. Full cost recovery would limit pressure on income from fuel.
Supportive ifBy year-end, Matson reports that fuel costs have been fully recovered.
Worry ifAt year-end, Matson says it has recovered only part of its fuel costs.
Why it matters: Matson plans large vessel spending alongside maintenance costs. Spending well above plan could add pressure to capital needs.
Worry if2026 vessel construction payments are above the guided $400 million. Or, maintenance and other capital payments are over $170 million.
Less concerning ifVessel construction payments are near $400 million. Other capital payments stay within $150 million to $170 million.
Why it matters: China service growth drove the Q2 ocean gain. Capacity near its limit could support freight income if demand stays strong.
Supportive ifQ3 China service container volume is at least Q2's 37,200 FEU. Management says the service was near capacity.
Worry ifQ3 China service container volume is less than Q2's 37,200 FEU, or management says demand was weaker.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,285 loss on $10,000 · 12.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.