Matson, Inc. (MATX)
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$225.59+1.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MATX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MATX — President transition
Dated 2026-03-12
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer — John P. Lauer: John P. Lauer is retiring from the Company on July 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show good use of capital and commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces more share buybacks or finishes buybacks in Q3.
Worry ifNo share buybacks happen in Q3, suggesting changes in capital use.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend per share would show strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase of more than 5% per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced or a decrease is stated.
Why it matters: Exceeding this amount shows that management expects growth in a stable market.
Supportive ifTotal income for the year was over $455.6 million.
Worry ifTotal income for the year was below $455.6 million.
Why it matters: Updates on capital spending will show how Matson plans to use resources in 2026.
Watch forManagement plans to spend over $150 million in 2026.
Also watch forManagement plans to spend under $100 million in 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $292 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,811 loss on $10,000 · 18.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Logistics income growth is important for revenue and shows sector demand.
Supportive ifLogistics income in Q3 is over $13.6 million.
Worry ifLogistics operating income in Q3 is less than $13.6 million.
Why it matters: A delay in recovering fuel costs could hurt profits and overall income.
Worry ifQ2 results show little negative impact from fuel costs. This shows good recovery efforts.
Less concerning ifQ2 results show a big negative impact from fuel costs, showing recovery efforts are not working.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows recovery in Logistics after a drop in Q1.
Supportive ifLogistics income was at or above $14.4 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifLogistics income was below $14.4 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report is crucial after the recent earnings miss. It will show if the company can recover.
Watch forQ2 earnings were better than expected. This shows financial performance improved from Q1.
Also watch forQ2 earnings did not meet expectations again. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show management's faith in the company's value.
Watch forMore shares were bought back under the program.
Also watch forNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is maturing. If revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Matson.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrial sector is speeding up. It is getting closer to past highs.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows the sector is still weak.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows strong demand and effective cost management. This is key for future earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 Ocean Transportation income goes up by about 45% from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 Ocean Transportation operating income does not rise or falls from Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Growth in China service volume shows strong demand recovery. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifChina service volume increases year-over-year in Q3 2026 by at least 10%.
Worry ifChina service volume falls year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Recovering fuel costs affects profits and operating income. This is key for keeping margins.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full recovery of fuel costs by the end of 2026.
Worry ifManagement says there may be delays in recovering fuel costs by the end of 2026.