Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.14-2.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.01 → 6.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MBIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Criticized loans decline by at least 20% | Criticized loans fell 31% to $505.5 million, showing better asset quality. | Intact | criticized loans reduction falls below 20% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional financials business with a cautious, improving long-term thesis, not a clear-cut growth story. Management execution is stable, and recent results have been positive, but earnings quality remains fragile and the thesis is still on watch.
The valuation evidence is mixed: MBIN is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall pricing tag is stretched. The expectations gap is modest, so the market appears to allow some room for execution improvement, but the evidence does not support a stronger conclusion about what is assumed.
Near term, recent earnings beats and rising momentum are constructive, but financial performance remains below the industry cohort and the reaction has been muted. Across the supplied quarters, core deposits and available liquidity grew, while credit signals were mixed: nonperforming loans fell in Q3 but criticized loans rose. The near-term miss risk is assessed as low, though a prior deep miss and recent peer misses remain cautions.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued deposit growth, strong liquidity, and better credit quality, especially whether criticized loans begin to ease. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from HDB, IBN, and USB could support the financials backdrop, while rate cuts or weaker peer results could remove that support.
The multi-year view is cautiously improving, but remains on watch because earnings quality is fragile and industry-relative performance is still weak. The key test is whether deposit and liquidity progress is matched by firmer credit trends and sustained execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Merchants Bancorp grew core deposits 7% to $12.1 billion in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| YoY core deposit growth falls below 5% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth remains positive | A supporting condition in Merchants Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth turns negative next year | Revenue growth: -3.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-3.392587 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.68 → $6.02 · observed estimates
$0.76B → $0.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.68 | $757,458,510 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.68 | $757,387,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.68 | $757,458,510 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.68 | $757,387,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.68 | $757,458,510 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.68 | $757,458,510 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.68 | $757,458,510 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.99 | $767,257,190 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.99 | $767,257,190 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.99 | $767,257,190 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.99 | $767,257,190 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.99 | $767,257,190 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.99 | $767,257,186 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.00 | $770,605,334 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.01 | $770,955,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.05 | $774,243,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.08 | $778,176,823 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.02 | $776,843,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.02 | $776,843,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.02 | $776,843,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.02 | $776,843,490 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.02 | $776,843,490 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.