Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$52.68+0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -27.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
Why it matters: Having strong cash helps the company control costs. It also helps with growth.
Supportive ifLiquidity stays above $13 billion. This is over 60% of total assets.
Worry ifLiquidity drops below $11 billion. This shows possible funding problems.
Why it matters: More non-performing loans can show problems with asset quality. This can hurt earnings.
Worry ifNon-performing loans exceed $250 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNon-performing loans stay below $250 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows strong business performance and makes more money.
Supportive ifNet income is above $78 million. This confirms the bank is earning well.
Worry ifNet income drops below $78 million. This shows possible problems with making money.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows good business performance. This builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $78 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income falls below $78 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,329 loss on $10,000 · 13.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show trends in profit and how the business is doing.
Watch forNet income increases compared to Q1 2026's $67.7 million.
Also watch forNet income decreases or remains flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better asset quality means less risk. This helps the bank's financial health.
Supportive ifCriticized loans receivable fell from $505.5 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCriticized loans receivable rise or stay the same in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Fewer nonperforming loans mean better asset quality. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifNonperforming loans decrease below $200 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNonperforming loans increase or stay above $205.6 million.
Why it matters: Better asset quality lowers risk. It helps the company make more money. It shows good loan management.
Supportive ifLoans that are criticized are now below $400 million. This shows things are getting better.
Worry ifCriticized loans receivable go up or do not drop much.
Why it matters: Growth in core deposits shows strong customer trust. It also shows financial health. This helps future lending and makes more money.
Supportive ifCore deposits exceed $13.0 billion in the next quarter's report.
Worry ifCore deposits fall below $13.0 billion in the next quarter's report.
Why it matters: Strong liquidity helps the bank meet its obligations. It also allows for investments in growth.
Supportive ifLiquidity is above $13.0 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifLiquidity is below $13.0 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in criticized loans shows better asset quality. It also shows better risk management. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifCriticized loans drop below $444.7 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCriticized loans increase above $444.7 million in the next quarter.