Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.43+3.09%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -30.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Core deposits rose to 95% of total deposits in Q3. Keeping that share high would support the stated deposit-growth focus.
Supportive ifThe next results show core deposits remain at least 95% of total deposits and exceed $14.3 billion.
Worry ifCore deposits fall below $14.3 billion or below 95% of total deposits.
Why it matters: Criticized loans rose in Q3, even as nonperforming loans fell. Another rise would point to more credit stress.
Worry ifIn the next reported quarter, criticized loans rise above $460.1 million. Or substandard loans rise from $278.7 million.
Less concerning ifCriticized loans fall below $460.1 million and substandard loans decline from the Q3 level.
Why it matters: Core deposits made up 95% of Q3 deposits, while brokered deposits fell. A reversal could raise funding pressure.
Worry ifIn the next results, core deposits fall below $14.3 billion. Or brokered deposits rise above $723.5 million.
Less concerning ifCore deposits stay at or above $14.3 billion, and brokered deposits stay at or below $723.5 million.
Why it matters: These gains helped offset pressure on mortgage sales. A sharp drop could weaken the earnings hedge.
Worry ifIn the next results, servicing-right gains fall below $28.2 million and floor-derivative gains fall below $19.1 million. Gain-on-sale revenue does not rise to offset them.
Less concerning ifThe next results show gains of at least $28.2 million from servicing rights or $19.1 million from the floor derivative. Or, stronger gain-on-sale revenue offsets lower gains.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $269 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,455 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.