Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.13-3.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.50 → 0.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MBLY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Control operating losses post-acquisition | Management aims to control losses after a big acquisition. | Improving | Operating losses worsen beyond -$4 billion in FY26 | Operating margin: -16.67% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves from -$3.9B in 2026-Q1 toward less negative by FY26 end. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026-16.666667 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, with a long-term thesis tied to advanced driver-assistance systems, robotaxis, and robotics. The thesis is in a watch state after a recent earnings miss and sharp declines in company momentum and composite insight.
The valuation model places MBLY at a 1.78 premium to peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to concentrated expectations pressure, but valuation still carries a meaningful peer premium.
Near term, results look weak: Q3 2026 revenue was lower year over year, the company missed its latest quarter, and the risk profile is elevated. Over the multi-year view, EyeQ shipments were up 11% in the first nine months, while robotaxi deployments show operational progress; financial contributions from robotaxis and Mentee are not quantified.
A key near-term test is whether MBLY maintains its recently raised guidance, since a reversal could damage management credibility. The broader sector backdrop is also a swing factor: continued strength among GPC, BWA, and APTV could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on ADAS demand turning into stronger financial performance and newer mobility efforts producing measurable revenue. Recent execution is weak, while evidence for the newer initiatives remains limited. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Full-year 2026 revenue at about $1.975 billion |
| Mobileye raised 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.975 billion. |
| Intact |
| Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $1.9 billion |
Revenue: $492M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.975B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026492,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Robotaxi business supports revenue growth | A supporting condition in Mobileye Global Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Robotaxi revenue contributes meaningfully to overall growth in FY26. | Under Pressure | Robotaxi revenue growth stalls or declines in FY26 | Qualitative: Robotaxi revenue growth not quantified; mixed signals (raised FY26 outlook vs. Barclays downgrade on advanced wins) Mobileye raised 2026 revenue outlook to ~$2.008B, but Barclays downgraded the stock citing lack of progress on advanced wins. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.40 → $0.49 · observed estimates
$2.21B → $2.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.40 | $2,206,718,632 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.40 | $2,206,718,632 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.46 | $2,202,445,857 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.46 | $2,202,445,857 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.46 | $2,202,445,857 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.46 | $2,202,445,857 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.48 | $2,196,211,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.48 | $2,196,211,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.48 | $2,196,211,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.49 | $2,191,075,108 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.50 | $2,189,760,049 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.50 | $2,190,817,735 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.50 | $2,188,955,462 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.50 | $2,188,464,882 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.50 | $2,188,464,882 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.50 | $2,188,464,882 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.50 | $2,185,687,609 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.50 | $2,185,686,282 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.50 | $2,185,697,437 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.50 | $2,185,697,437 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.50 | $2,185,697,437 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.50 | $2,185,697,437 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.50 | $2,185,697,437 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.51 | $2,185,333,801 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.51 | $2,185,333,801 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.51 | $2,185,102,455 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.51 | $2,186,750,899 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.50 | $2,172,774,862 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.49 | $2,167,448,997 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.49 | $2,167,448,997 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.49 | $2,165,353,759 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.49 | $2,167,353,432 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.49 | $2,167,353,432 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.49 | $2,167,353,432 | 13 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 13 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.