Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.56+2.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
MBLY — President transition
Dated 2026-08-12
Director — Patrick Bombach: A director resigned effective immediately due to a change in role at the controlling shareholder, with no disagreement cited.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health and the ability to support growth.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow for Q3 exceeds $100 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flow for Q3 is below $100 million. This raises worries about cash.
Why it matters: The R&D Law may change operating income and profit margins. This affects overall financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says the R&D Law will add $197-$217 million to operating income.
Worry ifThe impact of the R&D Law is less than $150 million on operating income.
Why it matters: A good CEO transition is key for company strategy and growth.
Watch forThe board announces a new CEO who aligns with Mobileye's strategic goals.
Also watch forThe board does not appoint a new CEO on time, causing uncertainty.
Why it matters: Flat revenue growth could signal weakening demand after a strong Q1. This is key for future guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue remains flat or declines compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue grows year over year by more than 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $569 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,779 loss on $10,000 · 57.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health. It allows for investment in growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is over $200 million. This shows strong financial performance.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $200 million. This raises concerns about stability.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that people want Mobileye's products. This backs up management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year, indicating strong market demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 5% year over year, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: A successful launch of robotaxi services could show that Mobileye's technology works. This could help them make more money.
Supportive ifPublic testing of robotaxi services will start in more cities, not just Hamburg.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the rollout of robotaxi services.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong demand and growth momentum.
Supportive ifManagement raises the 2026 revenue guidance midpoint to more than $1,975 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 revenue guidance midpoint to less than $1,975 million.
Why it matters: The transition in leadership could impact strategy and execution. Investors will want to see a smooth transition.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO within the next few months.
Also watch forThere is a long delay in picking a new CEO. This is past the expected time.
Why it matters: The CEO change may affect strategy and investor trust. Stable leadership is key for growth.
Watch forA new CEO is appointed and outlines strategic priorities within three months.
Also watch forThe search for a new CEO takes longer than three months without updates.
Why it matters: New design wins would indicate strong demand for Mobileye's products and could drive revenue growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new design wins in ADAS systems within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new design wins announced in the next quarter.