Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.88+4.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBUU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
MBUU — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-13
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On July 10, 2026, Malibu Boats, LLC as the borrower (the “Borrower”), a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of the Malibu Boats, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) to its existing third amended and restated credit agreement dated as of July 8, 2022 (the “Existing Credit Agreement”), by and among the Borrower, Mali…
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows confidence in growth after the Saxdor purchase.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 Q4 revenue guidance remains at $57 million to $59 million from Saxdor.
Worry ifRevenue guidance for Q4 fiscal 2026 is lowered below $57 million.
Why it matters: Keeping sales guidance shows confidence in market demand. A cut shows possible weakness.
Watch forManagement confirms net sales guidance for the year is $880 million to $886 million.
Also watch forManagement cuts net sales guidance to less than $880 million.
Why it matters: A good share repurchase can help stock price and show management's confidence.
Supportive ifMalibu buys back at least $10 million in shares under the new program in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifNo share repurchases happen in fiscal 2027 or big delays are announced.
Why it matters: A new share repurchase shows trust in the company’s finances and spending.
Supportive ifA new share repurchase program was announced after Q4 earnings.
Worry ifNo announcement of a share repurchase program after Q4 earnings.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $491 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,077 loss on $10,000 · 30.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA margins mean improved cost management. This can lead to more profit.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin is better than last quarter.
Worry ifEBITDA margin goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: A bigger decline would show more problems in retail and demand for Malibu's boats.
Worry ifUnit volume decline reported worse than 12.4% for Q3.
Less concerning ifUnit volume decline reported better than 12.4% for Q3.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Watch forQ3 earnings show revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Also watch forQ3 earnings report shows continued revenue decline year over year.
Why it matters: This shows how well Malibu is bringing Saxdor into its business. Strong sales mean good integration.
Supportive ifSaxdor segment net sales reported between $57 million and $59 million for Q4.
Worry ifSaxdor segment net sales fall below $57 million for Q4.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks at a lower price show good capital use and return to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company buys back shares at an average price under $26.24 for two quarters.
Worry ifShare repurchases stop or occur at a premium to $26.24.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving the Adjusted EBITDA margin is key. It helps make money during the acquisition.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 9% in the next quarter.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 8% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Steady sales growth is key for Malibu's long-term plans and market position.
Supportive ifNet sales growth remains above 3% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet sales growth falls below 3% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Integrating Saxdor is important for Malibu's growth. It will help increase revenue.
Supportive ifSaxdor adds over $23 million in net sales next quarter after the acquisition.
Worry ifIf Saxdor integration does not meet sales goals, there may be production delays.
Why it matters: Saxdor's success is important for making more money and growing in the market.
Supportive ifThe first Saxdor boats made in the U.S. will be done by fiscal 2027.
Worry ifIf Saxdor boat production is late or integration goals are not met.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows trust in sales and the market.
Supportive ifManagement expects revenue of $880 million to $886 million for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $880 million for 2026.