Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$20.64-16.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBUU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MBUU — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026, Malibu Boats, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this Item by reference.
Why it matters: Saxdor's earnout can reach $84.2 million, based on operating and financial targets. The payout shows how Saxdor's results compare with those targets.
Watch forA filing or company report says Saxdor met earnout targets and a payment is due for the 2026 earnout period.
Also watch forA filing or company report says Saxdor missed earnout targets. No payment is due for the 2026 earnout period.
Why it matters: Management said the first U.S.-built Saxdor boats are due in fiscal 2027's first half. On-time output would show progress on the deal.
Supportive ifThe next results confirm Fort Pierce built and shipped Saxdor boats by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe company reports no Fort Pierce-built Saxdor boats by December 31, 2026, or delays the start date.
Why it matters: Fiscal 2026 net income fell 88.8% to $1.7 million. Positive net income would show the company stayed profitable after a weak year.
Supportive ifFiscal Q1 reported net income is above $0.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 reported net income is $0 or less.
Why it matters: Malibu unit volume fell 2.5% in Q4, and lower retail activity cut wholesale shipments. A rise would mark a change in that trend.
Supportive ifFiscal Q1 Malibu segment unit volume is above the same quarter last year.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 Malibu segment unit volume is below the same quarter last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $485 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,036 loss on $10,000 · 40.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.