Moelis & Company (MC)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.02-0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — earnings per share growth to at least $3.09 in FY26 and $3.95 in FY27: FY26 EPS guidance $2.94 vs $3.09 target.
Moelis & Company has a strong advisory business with revenue around $1.5 billion. Earnings per share are expected to grow from about $3.09 in 2026 to $3.95 in 2027. The company maintains a robust quality status and has shown resilience with a 24% gain over the past 63 days. Profit margins and execution remain stable despite a recent soft guidance.
Earnings missed expectations in the latest quarter and guidance is soft. The company faces elevated risk and analyst estimates have seen more downward than upward revisions recently. Revenue growth is modest and could stall, pressuring margins and earnings.
The current share price is about 8% above our valuation range midpoint. The market expects modest earnings growth around 2.5% over three years, which is cautious given the company’s recent earnings beat and growth trajectory.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.09 in FY26 or below $3.95 in FY27
Breaks if: guidance posture worsens with cuts or significant downward revisions
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.69B in FY26 or below $2.01B in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth play with some cyclical elements. The current thesis state is cautious due to low confidence in earnings quality, despite management's stable execution of growth strategies and capital returns.
The market appears to be pricing in a low level of fragility, indicating that while there are concerns, they are not fully reflected in the valuation. The recent changes in confidence suggest that investors are wary but not overly pessimistic.
Management is on track with its priorities, including executing a growth strategy and maintaining a strong balance sheet. However, the recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is an elevated risk of missing future earnings expectations.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW, which could influence MC's trajectory. If these companies continue to perform well, it may provide a favorable backdrop for MC, while any negative guidance could lead to a downturn.
In the next 1 to 3 years, MC's outlook will depend heavily on sector performance and management's ability to execute its strategies effectively. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. New Managing Directors will help execute the growth strategy. Dividend and buyback news also supports capital return goals. No new threats have emerged.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.