Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Moelis & Company (MC)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$58.38-4.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.95 → 3.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
earnings per share growth to at least $3.09 in FY26 and $3.95 in FY27 | Earnings per share are expected to grow from about $3.09 in 2026 to $3.95 in 2027. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.09 in FY26 or below $3.95 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $0.62 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.09 EPS in FY26 and >= $3.95 EPS in FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Jul 30, 20260.62 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MC is a financial-services growth business with some capital-return and balance-sheet support, but the evidence does not establish it as a durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are on track, while earnings quality is fragile, risk is elevated, and confidence in the overall evidence is low.
The evidence does not provide a valuation measure or a clear account of market expectations, so whether MC is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The priced-in evidence says fragility is low because weak execution quality is not paired with the full expensive, weak, and turbulent setup.
Near-term results have been mixed, with an earnings miss in April 2026 followed by a beat in July; company momentum also fell by 12.8 points, and recent performance sits below its industry cohort. For the multi-year thesis, revenue growth and managing-director hiring show progress, while no funded debt and consistent capital returns support management’s stated priorities. A guidance cut or another earnings miss would weigh on the near-term picture.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether hiring and promoting managing directors can sustain revenue growth. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW could support sector momentum. The effect of rate cuts is another swing factor, as the evidence says financials usually do better when rates stay high.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MC has evidence of growth-strategy progress and a strong balance sheet, but fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and weaker recent momentum leave the long-term thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
maintain or improve guidance consistency without further cuts | A supporting condition in Moelis & Company's published investment case. The stated target is no further downward guidance revisions in next 2 quarters. | Intact | guidance posture worsens with cuts or significant downward revisions | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue growth sustaining near $1.5 billion in 2025 and growing toward $2.0 billion in 2027 | A primary condition in Moelis & Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.69B revenue in FY26 and >= $2.01B revenue in FY27. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.69B in FY26 or below $2.01B in FY27 | Revenue: $409.387M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.69B revenue in FY26 and >= $2.01B revenue in FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026409,387,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.91 → $3.85 · observed estimates
$2.01B → $2.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.91 | $2,012,936,300 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.91 | $2,012,936,300 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.91 | $2,012,936,300 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.91 | $2,012,936,300 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.91 | $2,012,936,300 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.91 | $2,012,936,300 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.91 | $2,012,936,300 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.93 | $2,033,568,510 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.96 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.93 | $2,033,568,510 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.93 | $2,033,568,510 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.93 | $2,033,568,510 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.92 | $2,033,568,510 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.92 | $2,033,568,510 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.95 | $2,029,483,540 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.94 | $2,029,540,040 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.94 | $2,037,995,560 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.94 | $2,037,700,960 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.94 | $2,037,700,960 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.94 | $2,037,700,960 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.95 | $2,037,700,960 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.95 | $2,037,890,960 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.94 | $2,034,434,460 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.94 | $2,033,736,844 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.90 | $2,018,248,765 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.90 | $2,018,248,765 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.90 | $2,018,832,365 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.91 | $2,018,832,365 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.87 | $2,018,832,365 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.87 | $2,018,774,965 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.87 | $2,018,774,965 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.86 | $2,023,008,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.84 | $2,032,342,978 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.84 | $2,032,342,978 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.84 | $2,032,342,978 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.85 | $2,021,108,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.85 | $2,021,108,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.85 | $2,021,108,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.85 | $2,021,108,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.85 | $2,021,108,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.85 | $2,021,108,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.85 | $2,021,108,681 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.85 | $2,021,108,681 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.