Moelis & Company (MC)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.02-0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Moelis & Company issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed.
Why it matters: Higher costs may mean problems or rising expenses that can hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating expenses are more than $350 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses are less than $320 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may mean higher costs or less profit. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted pre-tax margin was below 15.0%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 adjusted pre-tax margin exceeds 15.0%.
Why it matters: Dividends and buybacks show financial health. They also show commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifWatch for another dividend or share buyback news next quarter.
Worry ifNo dividend or buyback announcements are made in the next quarter.
Why it matters: High operating expenses can hurt profits. It may show problems in managing costs.
Worry ifIn Q3, operating costs are over 85% of revenues.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses are at or below 85% of revenues in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$181 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,323 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows care for shareholders. It also shows financial strength.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend is set at $0.65 per share.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend is below $0.65 per share.
Why it matters: More capital return shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal capital returned to shareholders is more than $300 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal capital returned to shareholders is less than $250 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: New hires are key to Moelis's growth strategy. More Managing Directors can boost revenue.
Supportive ifAt least 6 new Managing Directors hired by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 6 new Managing Directors hired by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show that management believes in the firm's value and future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $300 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifIf buybacks stay below $300 million, it may show worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: A decline shows possible weakness in deals and making money.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenues were below $319.8 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenues exceed $319.8 million.
Why it matters: Trends in the sector affect Moelis & Company. A slowdown may hurt future revenues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Less cash reserves could hurt the firm's ability to invest and return money.
Worry ifCash and short-term investments remain above $353 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash and short-term investments fall below $353 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Steady dividends show financial strength and a promise to share profits with investors.
Supportive ifThe firm declares a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe firm does not declare a dividend in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing this quarter. Investors look for strong performance to support stock value.
Supportive ifEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.50 for Q2 2026.
Worry ifEPS falls below $0.30 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hiring new Managing Directors helps Moelis grow and make more money. More hires can mean more completed deals.
Supportive ifAt least three new Managing Directors join the firm in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new Managing Directors join the firm in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show less demand for advisory services. This could hurt future results.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 9% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 9% year over year.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show that management believes in the firm's value. It also shows they want to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifAt least 0.5 million shares repurchased in Q3.
Worry ifNo shares repurchased in Q3.
Why it matters: Maintaining a strong balance sheet with no debt is crucial for financial stability and growth.
Worry ifFirm maintains no debt on its balance sheet.
Less concerning ifFirm incurs debt on its balance sheet.