Moelis & Company (MC)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$61.35+3.60%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
MC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Moelis & Company issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed.
Why it matters: Revenue rose 12% in Q2, but fees depend on deals that close. Another rise would show recent activity is turning into revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue is above the year-earlier quarter's $365.4 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $365.4 million, a year-over-year decline.
Why it matters: Moelis declared a $0.65 dividend in both Q1 and Q2. Another declaration would keep its recent cash return in place.
Supportive ifThe board declares a regular quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share in the next earnings release.
Worry ifThe board cuts, suspends, or does not declare the next regular quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: Moelis reported $481.1 million in cash and short-term investments in Q2, with no debt. A sharp cash drop or new debt would weaken that position.
Worry ifCash and short-term investments fall below $350 million, or the firm reports funded debt.
Less concerning ifCash and short-term investments remain above $350 million and the firm reports no debt.
Why it matters: The hires add people in private capital, Europe, and capital structure advice. Joining on time would show progress on the firm's growth plan.
Supportive ifAll 6 remaining Managing Directors will have joined the firm by year-end 2026.
Worry ifThe firm reports that any of the 6 planned hires did not join by year-end 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $403 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,323 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector note says Financials is still growing, but its trend has eased. A drop below its median would add pressure to the sector backdrop.
Worry ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth stays at or above its median.